Japan’s Defense Export Revolution: A Game Changer in Global Politics? – Part 4

Competition between Korea and Japan in the fighter jet market is Inevitable

The greatest concern for the South Korean defense industry is Japan’s move to export fighter jets. Japan, jointly developing next-generation fighter jets with the UK and Italy for deployment in the 2030s, has even revised its laws to facilitate sales. The Fumio Kishida administration has prepared legal grounds to export these next-generation fighter jets to a third country after persuading its coalition partner, the Komeito party, in mid-March.

The potential export targets are 15 countries that have relevant agreements with Japan. These include the U.S., European countries, Australia, India, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates. This means Japan has emerged as a dark horse in the fighter jet market, which the South Korean defense industry focuses on as a future mainstay.

This is because most potential export targets for Japan’s fighter jets are also major defense export countries for Korea. This is why concerns are being raised that KAI’s KF-21 (4.5 generation) and Japan’s next-generation fighter jet (6th generation) will inevitably compete in the market.

One industry insider said, “Although the two models from both countries differ significantly in stealth capabilities, which are key indicators for differentiating generations of fighter jets, they can become competitors depending on contract conditions. If Japan uses incentives such as large-scale discounts to achieve exports, it will inevitably impact KF-21 exports.”

The South Korean defense industry is growing more tense as analysis suggests that Japan’s defense exports have been given the green light. There are predictions that the strategic competition between the U.S. and China will boost Japan’s defense exports. As China rapidly increases its military power, U.S. defense companies are falling behind in production speed and cost, which could make Japan a viable solution to counter China.

The U.S. especially feels threatened by the naval competition. By 2028, China’s navy is expected to have over 440 ships, while the U.S. Navy is projected to have only 291. The concern is that U.S. shipyards can no longer handle more orders, and there is growing support for utilizing the shipbuilding capabilities of Japan or Korea, which have superior shipbuilding technology.

However, U.S. law (the Jones Act) currently prohibits the purchase or construction of ships overseas. However, given that these regulations are based on national security and the protection of the domestic shipbuilding industry, there are predictions that they could be partially amended to open doors to allies if the military competition with China intensifies.

U.S. Choosing Japan as Defense Partner Would Be a Major Blow

The key issue in this situation is which country the U.S. will choose as its partner. Currently, Japan is generally seen as having an advantage over Korea in defense cooperation with the U.S., as it has jointly developed major weapons systems, such as the latest interceptor missile (SM-3 Block IIA).

The U.S. also seems to be more favorable towards Japan in terms of weapon sales. While the U.S. has sold the highly classified F-35 stealth fighter jets to Korea, Japan, and Australia, it has drawn a line with Korea by only establishing maintenance bases in Japan and Australia.

Military experts analyze that “from the U.S. perspective, it would be more trustworthy and efficient to rely on Japan, which is a step away from confrontation with North Korea, rather than providing South Korea, which is directly in confrontation with North Korea, with all the highly classified advanced weapon systems, and consider it more effective in countering China.” Professor Park Young Jun of the National Defense University said, “The South Korean government and defense companies need to jointly address the issues that the U.S. is concerned about in strengthening its defense capabilities and need to gain the U.S.’s trust. Through high-level channels, including summit talks, we need to more actively appeal and let them know that our export experience and defense technology are superior to Japan’s.”

To Read Part 1…
To Read Part 2…
To Read Part 3…