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Despite the U.S.-South Korea joint training and the general elections of South Korea on April 10th, North Korea is only conducting customized training and refraining from notable provocations. This is interpreted as a measure considering the possibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea and to avoid causing any disruptions during the period of China’s most significant annual political event, the Two Sessions. However, there are constant signals that they may conduct the 7th nuclear test, which is raising concerns that North Korea might fire off a nuclear test. The 6th nuclear test of North Korea took place in September 2017.
North Korea’s last missile provocation was on the 14th of last month. At that time, under Kim Jong Un’s watch, North Korea launched a new ground-to-ship cruise missile, the Badasuri-6, from the northeast sea off Wonsan into the East Sea. North Korea continued missile provocations several times after the New Year on January 24th, 28th, 30th, and February 2nd, but it has been quiet for a month.
Instead, North Korean state-run media only report Kim’s military training inspections. Kim visited the Western District Operation Training Base on the 6th, took shooting positions to guide the training, and attended the competition training of the new-model tank unit on the 13th.
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Regarding this, Professor Yang Moo Jin of the University of North Korean Studies evaluated, “It seems that they are generally trying to manage the situation, considering the mention of interim measures by U.S. senior bureaucrats, expectations for negotiations with Japan, the possibility of President Putin’s visit to North Korea, and the 75th anniversary of North Korea-China diplomatic relations.”
However, apart from this, signs of preparation for a nuclear test continue to be detected. On the 13th (local time), Radio Free Asia (RFA) quoted satellite images taken by the U.S. commercial satellite Planet Labs on the 26th of last month, which showed that cooling water from a pump station connected to the test waterway was being discharged into the Kuryong River, creating white foam. Whether cooling water is discharged is a vital signal to distinguish the operation status of nuclear reactors and light-water reactors inside the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon.
Thermal infrared images taken by NASA operating Landsat 8 on the same day also analyzed that both the Radiochemical Laboratory and the Uranium Enrichment Facility of the Yongbyon nuclear facility were operating and emitting heat.
For North Korea, there is a temptation to conduct a nuclear test to draw the attention of the United States ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated on the 4th that “The Punggye-ri nuclear test site is still in use and is ready to support a new nuclear test,” and that “A new nuclear test would violate UN Security Council resolutions and be a cause for serious concern.”
The U.S. State Department also told Voice of America (VOA), which requested a comment on this, on the 5th, “The U.S. assesses that North Korea has been preparing for a 7th nuclear test at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site and is waiting for a political decision.”
However, there is also an opinion that North Korea will move cautiously. Olli Heinonen, a former deputy director of the IAEA and a researcher at the U.S. Stimson Center, told RFA, “It is generally considered reckless for North Korea to conduct the 7th nuclear test at Punggye-ri, where the ground has collapsed a lot,” and “North Korea has already proven its nuclear weapon manufacturing ability through several nuclear tests.” He said, “If North Korea conducts an additional nuclear test, even China and Russia will react negatively,” and analyzed, “It depends on Kim’s political decision.” A South Korean government official conveyed the atmosphere, saying, “It is a well-known fact that China is dissuading North Korea from conducting the 7th nuclear test.”
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