On the 22nd, Samsung Securities analyzed the possibility of the U.S.-China dispute, which has resurfaced as a hot topic in the financial market and is likely to intensify. President Joe Biden recently announced plans to raise tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum from 7.5% to 25%. The U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai revealed that they are investigating China’s unfair maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding trade practices.
Jeon Jong Kyu, a researcher at Samsung Securities, said, “As the U.S. election campaign heats up, both the Biden administration and the Trump Republican candidate camp are strengthening their policies to keep China in check, which could further worsen the U.S.-China conflict.” He predicted, “Regardless of the election results, the U.S.’s policy of containing China is expected to remain firm.”
He added, “Both the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties are recording the highest level of anti-China sentiment among Americans and define China as a ‘systemic competitor.’ This year, the U.S.-China conflict is expected to increase uncertainty in economic territories (high tariffs, advanced manufacturing). From a mid-term perspective, geopolitical risks (Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the South China Sea) and tensions in the global supply chain restructuring process are expected to rise.”
Jeon stated, “As the U.S. takes steps to contain China’s current (high tariff) and future (advanced technology) trade, the global supply chain is being shaken. The changes observed through China’s export and import countries and items strengthen emerging economic blocks, △intensify competition in advanced manufacturing, △and expand the supply surplus structure.”
He continued, “The trade dispute (2018) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) have acted as catalysts for restructuring the trade structure. China’s exports to developed countries fell from 51.6% in 2010 to 41.1% last year, while exports to emerging countries (ASEAN, BRICs, Middle East, Africa, and South America) surged from 27.6% to 41.3%.”
Jeon concluded, “A fierce battle is ongoing in the advanced manufacturing sector, represented by semiconductors. China is trying to break through the U.S.’s core technology alliance (alignment) by pursuing expansionist foreign policies (Middle East, Africa, ASEAN, Europe, and South America) and strengthening market liberalization and economic cooperation while investing massive human resources and capital into advanced technology sectors. A fierce battle in the advanced manufacturing sector is inevitable even after the U.S. election.”
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