The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that the Chinese military could land ground troops in Taiwan within a week based on the analysis that the Japanese government conducted regarding China’s last year’s training. Initially, the Japanese government had estimated this period to be about a month, but now they are strengthening their guard as the Chinese military’s consideration of “short-term warfare.”
According to the report, the data the Japanese government analyzed is the Chinese military’s training, conducting the missile launches, and utilizing the vessels throughout China and its nearby waters for about a month last summer. A high-ranking government official said that the analysis of the series of exercises showed that if each unit simultaneously engaged in operations, it would be possible to block Taiwan’s surrounding seas and airspace and land a large-scale ground force within a few days. The Yomiuri reported that this information had been reported to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida earlier this year.
It is expected that the Chinese military’s invasion of Taiwan would proceed in the following order:
1. Naval ships will blockade the seas.
2. Missiles will target and attack Taiwan’s military facilities.
3. To establish a beachhead, Troops will be deployed using landing ships and transport helicopters.
4. Finally, soldiers and tanks will be brought in using landing ships and large civilian cargo ships.
The Chinese military’s enhancement of short-term warfare capabilities is considered a preemptive measure to prevent operational disruptions from Taiwan’s counterattacks or U.S. military intervention. The objective is to subdue Taiwan before the main U.S. forces become involved. Similarly, the Japanese government has analyzed the likelihood that China will wage a hybrid war, combining military attacks and cyber attacks on major infrastructure, to delay the intervention of the U.S. military and other allied forces.
Yomiuri stated that there are tasks to consider along with reviewing whether the Japanese Self-Defense Forces can be dispatched in the event of China’s invasion of Taiwan. It is necessary to examine whether the invasion can apply to important influence situations where support for U.S. military ships is possible or existence-crisis situations where limited collective self-defense rights can be exercised. The media stated, “Because to dispatch the Self-Defense Forces prior approval of the parliament is required, the government needs to make a prompt decision in the case of short-term warfare.”
Meanwhile, Yomiuri‘s satellite image analysis also captured the preparation of the Chinese military for short-term suppression. The images showed that the Chinese army is establishing artillery and amphibious force bases and establishing or expanding helicopter airfields on the opposite side of the Taiwan coast. Also, facilities reproducing the Taiwanese presidential office and Taipei cityscape were confirmed in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The Yomiuri explained, “The mock presidential office is believed to have existed for at least 10 years and is being used as a training ground assuming an attack on Taiwan’s central government.” The mock presidential office is located in an army training ground. It is believed to be used for training to secure the Taiwanese president’s suspect through urban warfare, such as parachute drops. Quoting a defense official, the newspaper added, “For China, the most efficient way to suppress is to restrain the Taiwanese president’s suspect and establish a puppet regime.”
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