China’s assertive “wolf warrior diplomacy,” a hallmark of its foreign policy over the past decade, appears to be undergoing a significant shift toward what some analysts call “sheep diplomacy.” This softer, more cooperative approach comes as Beijing faces escalating geopolitical challenges, particularly with Donald Trump set to return to the U.S. presidency on January 20.
On Friday, diplomatic sources in Beijing indicated that China’s past diplomatic strategy stemmed from the overarching principle of “hiding one’s capabilities and biding one’s time.” This approach led to a relatively soft stance when dealing with other nations. However, since Xi Jinping assumed leadership in November 2012, signs of change have gradually emerged.
Under President Hu Jintao, the notion of a “peaceful rise” framed China’s ascent on the global stage. As China emerged as a G2 power alongside the U.S., this strategy gave way to “active engagement,” eventually evolving into more aggressive wolf-warrior diplomacy under Xi Jinping’s leadership.
Wolf warrior diplomacy saw Chinese diplomats adopting a combative posture, often aggressively countering perceived slights or criticisms from other nations. While projecting strength, this approach also earned China significant backlash, straining relations with countries like South Korea, Japan, and many in the European Union.
However, signs of a recalibration are becoming increasingly apparent. Analysts suggest that Beijing is moving toward a more moderate and pragmatic diplomatic strategy reminiscent of its earlier “peaceful rise” era. This shift is a response to Trump’s anticipated hardline policies and the need to secure alliances amid growing global pushback against China’s assertiveness.
Recent diplomatic overtures support this analysis. China has softened its approach toward South Korea and Japan, prioritizing dialogue and cooperation over confrontation. Similarly, efforts to improve relations with EU member states—many of which align closely with U.S. interests—highlight a strategic pivot.
The underlying motivation for this shift is twofold. First, Beijing recognizes the need to counter Trump’s likely adversarial stance by building a network of more cooperative international relationships. Second, as China aspires to position itself as a mature global leader capable of rivaling the U.S., adopting a more flexible and less antagonistic foreign policy becomes essential.
While wolf warrior diplomacy once epitomized China’s rise on the world stage, its effectiveness has waned in the face of growing resistance from global powers. As a result, the transformation to “sheep diplomacy” appears inevitable and strategically necessary for Beijing’s long-term ambitions. Whether this shift will endure remains to be seen, but the days of wolf-warrior diplomacy may soon become a relic of the past.
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