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Trump’s Tariff Talk Sends UBS Lowering China’s Growth Outlook to 4%

Daniel Kim Views  

A Chinese citizen shops for groceries at a Beijing supermarket in October. / Reuters

In light of the U.S. election results, UBS, Switzerland’s leading investment bank, has revised its growth forecast for China, lowering it from 4.5% to 4% for 2025. The bank also predicts significantly slower growth for 2026.

Bloomberg reported on Saturday that UBS adjusted its projection for China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth next year. This revision comes as the U.S. election outcome becomes more definitive, establishing a new baseline for economic forecasts.

Just over a month ago, UBS had anticipated China’s real GDP growth to reach 4.5% but has now trimmed this estimate by half a percentage point.

The downward adjustment is largely attributed to President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies toward China. Trump has repeatedly stated that he would impose up to 60% tariffs on Chinese imports if re-elected. UBS analysts expect Trump to increase tariffs on Chinese goods as early as the second quarter of next year. The bank also anticipates that China will respond aggressively to boost domestic demand and counteract external pressures like tariffs during 2025 and 2026. UBS economists note that the ultimate growth rate will hinge on the magnitude of external shocks and the scale of policy responses implemented.

Daniel Kim
content@viewusglobal.com

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