According to a recent analysis, Apple (AAPL) maintains a positive long-term outlook despite declining iPhone 16 series sales.
Market research firm Counterpoint reported that the iPhone 16 series’ cumulative sales reached 37.2 million units within the first three months of its launch.
This is a 3.2% drop from its predecessor during the same period. November sales, the third month after release, were particularly weak, at 12.6 million units—a 12.6% decline from the previous model.
The Chinese market exhibited significant softness.
Some local governments in China offered handset subsidies until last December, but these subsidies were primarily directed at domestic brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi.
On Wednesday, China announced plans to expand handset subsidies at the central government level. This move is expected to benefit local brands mainly.
Ko Eui Young, an analyst at IM Securities, remains optimistic about Apple’s long-term prospects despite the downward trend in iPhone sales forecasts.
His optimism stems from expectations that advancements in Apple Intelligence will contribute to iOS market share growth over time.
Apple integrated ChatGPT into its Apple Intelligence system last December. However, the impact on demand has been limited due to the current English-only language support and low consumer awareness of AI capabilities.
Ko predicts a stronger iOS lock-in effect in the future. “If Siri evolves into a mobile AI agent that utilizes iPhone data to handle routine tasks, users will find it increasingly difficult to switch to another ecosystem,” he explained.
Apple’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is 33, which places it in the upper range of its valuation.
Investors should be prepared for potential short-term volatility caused by weak iPhone 16 series sales.
Ko concluded, “As users experience a more personalized Siri and Apple Intelligence as an AI agent, the iOS ecosystem is poised to strengthen, potentially driving the long-term expansion of iPhone market share.”
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