China’s population is projected to decrease by 51 million over the next decade, surpassing the entire population of California, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
In a report released Monday, Bloomberg stated that China’s population, which peaked at 1.41 billion in 2021, is expected to fall to approximately 1.36 billion by 2035. While the Year of the Dragon may lead to a temporary boost in birth rates, analysts believe this will likely be short-lived, mainly due to record-low marriage rates.
The United Nations presents an even more alarming forecast, suggesting that China’s population could be halved by 2100.
The population decline stems from decades of family planning policies, escalating living costs, and evolving social norms. The persistent challenges in child-rearing have led to consistently low birth rates among women. Bloomberg emphasized that the shrinking workforce and growing elderly population are straining the economy, pension systems, and healthcare infrastructure.
Despite the Chinese government’s efforts to reverse the trend, such as abandoning the one-child policy in 2016, introducing a two-child policy, and expanding it to three children in 2021, the road to a childbearing society remains challenging. Local governments have also implemented various measures, including financial incentives, extended parental leave, and outreach to women regarding childbirth.
Bloomberg Intelligence predicts that deaths in China will outnumber births twofold within two decades. This shift is expected to push the old-age dependency ratio to 52%, meaning there will be only two working-age individuals for every person aged 65 and older.
Ada Li, a Senior Industry Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, stated that Chinese authorities will likely accelerate reforms to remove barriers preventing couples of childbearing age from starting families. These reforms will include improvements in healthcare and pediatric services and measures to reduce childcare costs.
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