Trump’s Bold Move Could Change the Future of U.S.-North Korea Relations—But What About South Korea?

As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office in January, his appointment of a special envoy for North Korea is being interpreted as a signal for renewed U.S.-North Korea talks. On Sunday, Trump named Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany, the special envoy for North Korea. Grenell is a proponent of dialogue but also demanded increased defense spending from NATO member countries. Notably, he has reportedly stated that the reality of North Korea’s nuclear weapons must be accepted and that the U.S. should work with North Korea to protect its own interests, underscoring the need for South Korea to prepare thoroughly.

In July and October, Trump stated that it was beneficial to maintain a good relationship with Kim Jong Un, who possesses numerous nuclear weapons. Last month, Trump’s team went a step further by suggesting direct talks with Kim while expressing a desire to avoid military conflict.

Given these developments, a Trump-Kim summit seems almost certain, with only the time and place yet to be determined. Such a meeting could pose significant challenges for South Korea.

If U.S.-North Korea talks take place, key topics will likely include North Korea’s nuclear weapons, the suspension of U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises, and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea. Any of these outcomes would seriously threaten South Korea’s security. North Korea could insist on halting joint exercises and withdrawing U.S. troops as preconditions for talks. The possibility that Trump might not reject these demands outright cannot be entirely ruled out. Should this happen, North Korea would operate unchecked, and South Korea would face unprecedented security threats.

South Korea must guard against being sidelined in U.S.-North Korea negotiations, a situation often referred to as Korea Passing. South Korea is a direct stakeholder in issues involving nuclear weapons, joint military exercises, and U.S. forces stationed on the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, South Korea must actively express its position and intervene if necessary. While Kim will attempt to exclude South Korea from communicating with the U.S., South Korea must ensure its stance is clearly conveyed to the U.S. Trump favors a top-down approach to negotiations, where leaders interact directly. Unfortunately, South Korea currently operates under an acting president, complicating its diplomatic efforts with the U.S.

Filling the diplomatic void is an immediate priority. Acting President Han Duck Soo must ensure the National Security Office assumes the role of a control tower for foreign affairs and security. Additionally, South Korea should consider sending a special envoy to Trump’s team.

At Trump’s inauguration, Acting President Han should attend in person to meet with President Trump directly. He must dispel any doubts about South Korea’s political uncertainty while proactively proposing cooperation measures in areas of interest to Trump, such as shipbuilding and ship maintenance. It is also essential to emphasize that South Korea’s presence in Asia-Pacific reduces the U.S.’s military burden.