Iran, North Korea, and Russia: How Three Countries Are Fueling the Nuclear Arms Race

The threat of nuclear conflict looms larger as Russia revises its nuclear doctrine to include strikes against non-nuclear states. North Korea continues to advance its nuclear capabilities. Iran is accelerating its nuclear program. China continues to dismiss U.S. disarmament talks and expands its arsenal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greenlit changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine in November. The new doctrine permits the use of atomic weapons in response to attacks on Russian soil using missiles supplied by the U.S., UK, and France to Ukraine. This revised stance drastically lowers the nuclear threshold, potentially targeting not only established nuclear powers but also non-nuclear states like Ukraine. Russia deployed tactical nukes to Belarus and test-fired the new Oreshenik hypersonic IRBM toward Ukraine. The missile is capable of delivering nuclear payloads across Europe with its 5,500-kilometer (3,400-mile) range.

In November 2023, the U.S. and China held their first nuclear talks in five years. However, the talks were abruptly halted over Taiwan’s U.S. arms purchases. Beijing has long resisted nuclear disarmament talks, citing its smaller arsenal compared to Washington and Moscow. Since then, China has rapidly increased its nuclear arsenal, sparking global concern.

The Pentagon’s “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2024” estimates China will field over 600 operational nuclear warheads by mid-2024, up 100 from last year. Projections suggest China could possess over 1,000 warheads by 2030, with continued expansion through at least 2035.

North Korea unveiled its HEU production facility last September. It is estimated that North Korea has increased its warhead count by twenty to fifty. Concerns are mounting that Pyongyang may acquire nuclear submarine technology from Russia in exchange for ground troops. Iran has initiated plans to boost its 60% enriched uranium production sevenfold, from 4.7 to 34 kilograms (10.4 to over 75 pounds) monthly.