North Korea has suspended its provocative balloon launches carrying waste and trash toward South Korea for nineteen consecutive days, with the last incident occurring between November 28 and November 29. This restraint, coupled with the relatively subdued ceremony of the thirteenth anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death, suggests that Pyongyang may be tempering its provocations following the December 3 martial law crisis.
The most recent balloon launches from North Korea occurred between November 28 and November 29. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) reported that approximately thirty pieces of debris were found in South Korea during those two days. Since May, North Korea has conducted thirty-two balloon launches, dispersing waste, trash, and propaganda leaflets.
While North Korea has paused such launches for up to three weeks, the current lull coincides with South Korea’s domestic political turmoil. This turmoil includes the National Assembly’s passage of an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol and ongoing investigations related to the martial law declaration, which could potentially influence North Korea’s decision to exercise caution.
The thirteenth anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death on Tuesday was marked with uncharacteristic restraint. North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un and senior party officials paid their respects at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on North Korea’s most significant day of mourning. This year’s commemoration passed without incident in contrast to last year’s twelfth anniversary. North Korea had launched ballistic missiles into the East Sea in response to U.S.-South Korea nuclear consultations.
Yang Moo Jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, suggests that this year’s approach reflects a deliberate restraint in provocative actions. He attributes this to North Korea’s current focus on internal affairs and its desire to avoid interference in South Korea’s political situation, especially as Pyongyang prepares for its upcoming party plenary meeting.
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