As Donald Trump’s presidency approaches the six-month mark, a distinct Trump Doctrine is emerging. Contrary to the fears of his critics and the hopes of some supporters, Trump is not an isolationist. Moreover, despite claims that Trump’s approach is merely a hodgepodge of ad hoc decisions and inconsistencies, a clear pattern has emerged in his policy choices.
The Trump Doctrine emphasizes wielding American power more aggressively than his immediate predecessors, aiming to reshape key international relationships and secure advantages for the United States in an increasingly competitive global landscape.
While the isolationist label has long been associated with Trump, it has never accurately described this unconventional leader. Trump indeed scorns core elements of U.S. globalism, including the international trade system America established, its promotion of democratic values, and its worldwide defense commitments.
However, Trump has consistently argued for a more forceful assertion of American interests in a cutthroat world. As he pursues an expansive view of presidential power domestically, he’s simultaneously offering an ambitious vision of American power on the global stage.
Trump rails against prolonged, costly nation-building efforts. Nevertheless, he has engaged in two brief but decisive Middle Eastern conflicts: one to deter Yemen’s Houthis from attacking U.S. forces and Red Sea shipping, and another to roll back Iran’s nuclear program. While several U.S. presidents pledged to use force to prevent Tehran from crossing the nuclear threshold, Trump actually followed through.
Concurrently, Trump initiated trade wars against numerous countries, aiming to reshape the global economy. He leveraged diplomatic pressure and explicit threats of abandonment to renegotiate transatlantic relationships, pushing European allies to significantly increase defense spending. Trump also harnessed America’s technological prowess—particularly in high-end semiconductor design—to bring Saudi Arabia and the UAE into Washington’s tech bloc, making them partners in his quest for “AI dominance.”
Closer to home, Trump used veiled threats to persuade Panama to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative. He has demanded territorial concessions from Panama, Denmark, and Canada. Simultaneously, Trump champions his Golden Dome missile shield, designed to protect the homeland and grant America greater freedom of action against adversaries.
This approach diverges from standard post-1945 American internationalism; it’s difficult to imagine previous presidents demanding land from allies. Yet, it doesn’t represent a retreat into isolationism either. By wielding American power so aggressively and in such varied ways, Trump has revealed much about the current state of global affairs.
While policy journals are replete with discussions of American decline and the rise of multipolarity, Trump, in his inimitable style, has reminded many nations where true power lies. For instance, the strike on Iran demonstrated America’s unparalleled global military reach and its ability, alongside Israel, to reshape the Middle East while relegating Russia and China—nominally Iran’s allies—to the sidelines.
Trump’s key insight is that the world’s sole superpower wields more influence than commonly perceived. However, the Trump Doctrine faces three significant challenges.
First, its exercise of power lacks a coherent strategy. Trump’s trade war began chaotically as he failed to anticipate how exorbitant tariffs might damage the U.S. economy—a realization that forced a rapid and embarrassing retreat. A president who prioritizes deal-making over intellectual consistency sometimes pursues contradictory policies: Trump’s tariffs against Indo-Pacific allies undermine their economic strength, making it harder for them to boost defense spending.
Second, a president who occasionally struggles to distinguish friends from foes may misdirect U.S. power. Trump seems to relish targeting U.S. allies but has been reluctant to confront Russia, even as Vladimir Putin undermines Trump’s aspirations for peace in Ukraine—despite Putin’s war economy becoming increasingly vulnerable to the commercial and financial coercion Trump frequently threatens to employ.
Third, while the most effective presidents build U.S. power for the future, Trump risks depleting it. The One Big Beautiful Bill might stimulate the economy—or it could entrench structural deficits that constrain defense spending and growth. Slashing foreign aid saves minimal funds but erodes U.S. global influence; the war on universities threatens the research ecosystem underpinning America’s economic and military might. Moreover, a policy of tough love toward allies could devolve into mutually destructive hostility, and a superpower that regularly coerces its friends risks undermining the soft power that facilitates key relationships.
Trump revels in wielding U.S. power but fails to fully grasp its origins. This irony represents a fundamental weakness in the doctrine guiding his administration today.
Hal Brands
Hal Brands is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. — Ed.
(Tribune Content Agency)
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