On September 10th, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will have their first presidential candidate debate.
With the election campaign reaching a crucial juncture, polls show a tight race between the two candidates, and uncertain policies regarding battleground states heighten the stakes.
Early voting is set to commence in September, and historically, early voting has been a significant factor in recent presidential elections. Consequently, the policies discussed in this debate could considerably impact the election outcomes.
Korean researcher Choi Bo Won predicts the September debate results will be pivotal. He identified several key policy areas—environment, energy, taxes, foreign affairs, welfare, and healthcare—as particularly important. Choi emphasized that environmental, energy, and taxation policies are especially critical as they directly affect the performance of American companies and could significantly influence the stock market.
Choi suggested to investors that focusing on domestic and defensive stocks and policy beneficiaries would be more effective than an aggressive expansion.
Historically, political uncertainty tends to accelerate before a U.S. presidential election, leading to temporary pullbacks in major U.S. indices.
Due to the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cut and the narrow gap in approval ratings between the candidates, the investment sentiment towards risk assets may be more restrained. The ongoing pressures from the Japanese yen also played a role.
In September, investors should focus on domestic and dividend stocks, which will be less affected by foreign policy and exchange rates.
Furthermore, infrastructure and industrial stocks are expected to benefit from whichever candidate wins.
Choi noted that these companies are expected to benefit from a gradual decline in government bond yields, underlining the need to monitor them from the end of the year into the beginning of next year.
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