As speculation mounts over North Korea’s potential seventh nuclear test, the international community is keeping a close watch. The possibility of a nuclear test has garnered particular attention amid concerns that North Korea may time provocations around the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Both South Korea and the U.S. are actively monitoring the situation.
Lee Yong Jun, former Director General for North Korean Nuclear Affairs at South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recently predicted in an interview that North Korea might conduct a seventh nuclear test shortly after the inauguration of the following U.S. administration. He noted that because the impact would be limited even if North Korea were to provoke military actions aligned with the U.S. election date, North Korea could prepare for a nuclear test timed with the new U.S. administration’s arrival.
During the recent Intelligence Committee meeting, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) raised concerns that North Korea would engage in various forms of military provocations around the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The NIS stated that North Korea could execute a range of strategic actions, including Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launches and satellite deployments.
However, Sydney Seiler, a former national intelligence officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council, pointed out that historically, North Korea has prioritized establishing future relations with incoming U.S. administrations rather than directly influencing elections.
Analysts predict that the seventh nuclear test North Korea may carry out this time will mainly target miniaturized tactical nuclear weapons. North Korea has already unveiled its tactical nuclear warhead, Hwasan-31, which could potentially be mounted on several weapons, including solid-fuel, short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs).
North Korea’s preparations for this nuclear test have reignited discussions about its nuclear capabilities within the international community. Meanwhile, from last year’s report, the NIS mentioned that North Korea possesses approximately 154 lb of plutonium and a significant amount of highly enriched uranium, reaching a level capable of producing multiple nuclear weapons.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has recently called for increased preparations to confront military threats, highlighting the country’s status as a nuclear-armed state. With these developments, there is growing interest in whether North Korea will conduct a nuclear test around the U.S. presidential election—potentially a critical moment in shaping diplomatic relations with the next U.S. administration.
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