ASML Holding has reaffirmed its long-term profit outlook, banking on the AI-driven semiconductor demand boom. This reassurance to investors comes after the company’s third-quarter orders fell below analysts’ expectations, triggering a sell-off in its stock and other chip-related businesses.
During its Investor Day on Thursday, ASML projected 2030 revenue to range between €44 billion ($46 billion) and €60 billion ($63 billion), consistent with previous forecasts.
The company expects global chip revenue to surpass $1 trillion by 2030, driven by rising AI demand. This represents an annual growth rate of approximately 9% in the semiconductor market.
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet explained that while the company had a somewhat conservative outlook for 2025 due to market fluctuations, it remains very optimistic about 2030’s prospects.
The company anticipates double-digit annual growth in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spending for advanced logic and dynamic random access memory (DRAM) through 2030, with total margins expected to range between 56% and 60% by that year.
As the world’s sole manufacturer of lithography machines crucial for producing advanced chips powering devices ranging from Apple’s smartphones to Nvidia’s AI accelerators, ASML stands to benefit from the increased production of cutting-edge AI chips. This trend reflects higher demand for its advanced EUV lithography machines among semiconductor manufacturers.
While chip manufacturers like Nvidia lead in AI chip demand, sales to other major buyers, including automotive, smartphone, and PC manufacturers, have declined.
The U.S. government’s ongoing export controls on advanced AI chips and chip manufacturing equipment, aimed at curbing China’s semiconductor sector growth, also weigh on ASML’s outlook.
The Dutch government faces a delicate balancing act between supporting U.S. allies and preserving ASML’s largest market. U.S. pressure prevented ASML from selling EUV machines to Asian countries, with restrictions on its second-most advanced tools implemented this year.
China accounted for nearly half of ASML’s third-quarter revenue, totaling €2.79 billion ($2.94 billion). However, the company expects Chinese sales to represent about 20% of total revenue next year.
According to Bloomberg, Fouquet acknowledged that the pressure on the U.S. to further restrict semiconductor technology sales to China will likely intensify. He informed investors that while the chip market’s slow recovery possibly extends 2025, both 2024 and 2026 are expected to be growth years for the industry and ASML.
Following these announcements, ASML’s stock surged 7.1% in Amsterdam, marking its largest intraday gain since July 31.
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