South Korea’s Potential Arms Support for Ukraine: A Bargaining Chip for Trump’s Ceasefire Talks?

As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second term, the conflict in Ukraine is entering a new phase. Trump has expressed his intention to negotiate a ceasefire with Putin. South Korean government’s potential arms support for Ukraine and the possible expansion of North Korean troop deployment may become key bargaining chips in what lies ahead.

U.S. State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel confirmed on Tuesday that over 10,000 North Korean troops have engaged in combat on the front lines in Ukraine’s Kursk region. This marks the first official U.S. confirmation of North Korean troops’ combat involvement, likely in response to the recent ratification of a mutual military support treaty between North Korea and Russia.

The U.S. has taken steps to expose North Korean combat involvement, creating conditions for an active response. Diplomatic sources report that U.S. countermeasures include the possibility of South Korea providing weapons support to Ukraine. The South Korean government had previously shown its intention to support Ukraine with weapons.

If Trump initiates ceasefire negotiations for the Ukraine conflict, South Korea’s arms support could become a significant bargaining chip.

A professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, Dr. Park Won Gon, explained, “Trump’s foreign policy typically involves pressuring opponents to engage in dialogue. In the Ukraine conflict, South Korea’s arms support could serve as a powerful tool to pressure Russia. Simultaneously, Trump might threaten to cut off arms support to Ukraine if they don’t cooperate in ceasefire talks.”

Despite Trump’s willingness to negotiate a ceasefire, the South Korean government maintains its stance on considering arms support. A senior government official stated, “We don’t see any immediate need to change our policy regarding the Ukraine situation. We’ll coordinate with Trump’s transition team once it’s established.”

The ability to increase North Korean troop deployment based on the bilateral treaty could be a bargaining chip for Putin. He could use it as leverage to pressure Trump, who is eager to end the conflict, by threatening to prolong the war.

Park speculated, “Trump might preemptively demand that Putin withdraw North Korean troops in exchange for expediting the ceasefire. Both Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un will likely weigh the cost-effectiveness of negotiating with Trump.”

Some analysts suggest that South Korea’s arms support and North Korean troop deployments may remain secondary factors. The majority of arms support for Ukraine comes from the U.S. and Europe, and the current number of North Korean troops is unlikely to impact the overall military situation.

The director of Korea University’s Institute of National Security Strategy, Dr. Nam Sung Wook, stated, “South Korea’s arms support won’t be a major factor. Continuing U.S. arms support is crucial, while South Korea’s contribution remains supplementary. Similarly, the current scale of North Korean troop deployment isn’t enough to turn the tide, making it a secondary consideration for Russia.”