On September 26, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), ignited controversy by implying that North Korea should be regarded as a nuclear state. In an interview with the Associated Press, Grossi pointed out that North Korea has effectively held nuclear capabilities since 2006 and urged that negotiations acknowledge this reality. His comments were seen as a call for the global community to engage North Korea directly on nuclear matters despite its long-standing defiance of UN sanctions.
The IAEA chief’s statement, however, struck a nerve. Since North Korea’s nuclear provocations violate multiple UN Security Council resolutions, the United States and its allies have consistently rejected any formal recognition of the regime as a nuclear power. Grossi’s remarks, therefore, clash with the official stance Washington and its partners uphold, who continue to press for complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
In response to the backlash, the IAEA clarified Grossi’s intent. According to spokesperson Fredrik Dahl, Grossi merely emphasized the urgency of addressing North Korea’s nuclear developments through dialogue while remaining aligned with the UN’s denuclearization framework. The agency stressed that Grossi’s remarks aimed to advocate for diplomatic engagement to secure on-site inspections and, ultimately, to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear infrastructure.
Seventh Nuclear Test on the Horizon? South Korea’s Intelligence Weighs In
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) predicted that North Korea might conduct its seventh nuclear test after the November U.S. presidential election. During a National Assembly Intelligence Committee meeting, the NIS stated, “While there’s a possibility of action before the U.S. election, given North Korea’s arsenal of provocative options like ICBM launches and satellite deployments, it’s more likely to occur afterward.”
The NIS also assessed that North Korea possesses approximately 70 kg of plutonium and a significant amount of highly enriched uranium, sufficient to create nuclear weapons in the double digits. If accurate, this assessment implies that North Korea has already achieved nuclear-armed status.
Recent reports indicate North Korea is constructing a large submarine in an area dense with submarine-related facilities. South Korean military authorities are analyzing intelligence, considering the possibility of a nuclear-powered submarine.
Military analysts believe this submarine could be the nuclear-powered vessel Kim Jong Un mentioned last September. While they assess that North Korea has not yet acquired all essential components for nuclear-powered submarines, the increased size of the vessel suggests potential progress in this capability.
On September 2, during a visit to the Special Operations Forces training base, Kim Jong Un sharply criticized South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol for his warning message about North Korea’s nuclear capabilities on Armed Forces Day. Kim stated, “To speak of overwhelming military responses in front of a nuclear-armed state raises doubts about one’s sanity.” He further warned, “Hoping for survival in a military conflict with a nuclear power is futile. If such a situation arises, the existence of Seoul and South Korea will be impossible,” emphasizing North Korea’s nuclear status.
A Shift in U.S. Policy? The NPT Framework and North Korea’s Pursuit of Recognition
Internationally recognized nuclear powers are limited to the five countries defined in Article 9, paragraph 3 of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). These include the United States (1945), Soviet Union (1949), United Kingdom (1952), France (1960), and China (1964).
The NPT prohibits these existing nuclear powers (P5) from proliferating nuclear weapons while also preventing non-nuclear states from acquiring nuclear weapons or related technology, thus maintaining a framework that continues to this day.
Despite international concerns, Israel, India, and Pakistan have pursued nuclear development, leading to their classification as de facto nuclear powers outside the original five. These countries secretly developed nuclear weapons and successfully conducted tests, reportedly receiving tacit approval from the United States.
However, North Korea remains a controversial subject, unrecognized as a nuclear power by the international community. North Korea declared the completion of its nuclear arsenal in 2017.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated in its June 2024 annual report that North Korea has assembled 50 nuclear warheads and possesses enough fissile material to create 90 warheads. If accurate, this assessment effectively qualifies North Korea as a nuclear state.
U.S. and Allies Stand Firm Against Recognition Amid China and Russia’s Ambivalence
Despite North Korea’s efforts, the United States and its allies remain resolute in rejecting any recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power. At the recent preparatory meeting for the 11th NPT Review Conference, EU Special Representative Marjolijn van Deelen reinforced this stance, asserting that “North Korea cannot and will never obtain nuclear power status under the NPT.”
Yet, North Korea’s primary backers, China and Russia, diverge on the issue. Both countries have shown little interest in challenging Pyongyang’s nuclear status, with China prioritizing its strategic rivalry with the United States and Russia focusing on expanding its regional influence. Under this shield, North Korea continues to seek acceptance as a de facto nuclear state.
For South Korea and the United States, denuclearization remains the official endgame. However, as North Korea’s nuclear capabilities grow and its diplomatic allies offer tacit support, the question of whether to negotiate with Pyongyang as a nuclear-armed state could lead to a major shift in international policy and strategy on the Korean Peninsula.
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