WHO: ‘If an Epidemic Arises in Gaza, Death Tolls Could Be Up to 88,000 More People by August’

The World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed concern that the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, which is intensifying amid clashes between the Israeli military and Palestinian armed group Hamas, could result in many more deaths if an epidemic breaks out.

According to the WHO on the 6th (local time), Richard Pepperkorn, the Palestinian relief coordinator, categorized the estimated additional casualties in the event of an epidemic in the Gaza Strip by scenario based on the situation of the conflict.

A total of six scenarios emerge when variables such as a ceasefire, maintaining the current situation, and escalation of conflict are combined with the possibility of an epidemic.

The scale of casualties in each case was calculated by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Johns Hopkins University. The researchers estimated how many more deaths would occur in the Gaza Strip from February 7th of this year to August 6th.

From the outbreak of conflict on October 7th last year until February 6th, the number of deaths in the Gaza Strip was approximately 27,000.

Pepperkorn predicted that if no epidemic occurs in the Gaza Strip by August 8th, there would be an additional 6,550 deaths in the event of a ceasefire, 58,260 if the current conflict continues, and 74,290 if the conflict escalates.

If an epidemic occurs, the damage would be much greater. Pepperkorn explained that an additional 11,580 people would die in the event of a ceasefire, 66,720 if the current conflict continues, and in the worst-case scenario of conflict escalation, an additional 87,750 deaths are expected.

As of the 6th, the Gaza Strip Health Department reported that the death toll had reached 37,170.

The Gaza Strip has been at risk of an epidemic for a long time due to poor sanitary conditions and lack of clean water. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), hundreds of thousands of residents have reported symptoms such as respiratory infections and diarrhea since last October.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed concern about the deteriorating medical system in the Gaza Strip due to the ongoing conflict. If the system is not restored and a monitoring system for the epidemic is not established, there is a high probability of a deadly health crisis in the region. Moreover, the risk of famine is also growing due to severe food shortages in the area.