As the war in Ukraine drags on for nearly three years, North Korea has resumed provocations with its new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) after sending troops to support Russia.
Analysts suggest this could be a show of strength ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, but some believe it also carries a veiled message directed at Russia.
North Korea may be emphasizing the need to enhance its nuclear capabilities in the context of countering a “common enemy” in the U.S., urging Russia for technological and technical support.
The new North Korean ICBM, Hwasong-19, was launched on October 31. It appears larger in diameter and length compared to the previous Hwasong series. Notably, the warhead section has become larger and blunter, raising speculation that North Korea is considering Multiple Independent targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV).
This technology means that after the missile enters the atmosphere using its first or second-stage engines, a follow-on propulsion vehicle (PBV) containing multiple warheads separates and operates independently at apogee. It is the “ultimate” form of ICBM, as each warhead can navigate to separate targets with its own propulsion.
A military official commented on North Korea’s potential to test such ICBMs: “It is inappropriate to speak about aspects that North Korea has not disclosed.” He added that “focusing excessively on appearances can lead to mistakes.”
In related reports, North Korea described Hwasong-19 as the “final version of the intercontinental ballistic missile” and claimed to have conducted “very significant tests.” It was not specified which technological capabilities were evaluated.
North Korea has consistently expressed its commitment to developing MIRV technology while focusing on enhancing its ability to strike the U.S. mainland. Experts argue that it is prudent to assume the pursuit of such capabilities is a reality and prepare accordingly.
The Hwasong-19’s record-long flight and highest altitude have bolstered assessments that “North Korea’s technological advancements have been confirmed,” yet many voices question its practicality.
Jang Young Geun, head of the Missile Center at the Korea National Strategy Institute, stated, “Considering its size and weight, the operational mobility is too low, making it impractical during wartime.”
North Korea’s ICBM launch sites, such as roads near Pyongyang’s Sunan Airport, are essentially fixed. The road conditions cannot adequately support the weight of transportable launchers (TELs) carrying missiles, limiting the operational capability of ICBMs.
Analysts conclude that cooperation with Russia is crucial for North Korea to significantly enhance its ICBM capabilities. Russia can contribute in numerous areas, such as providing the resources for smaller and lighter missiles and MIRV technology.
Experts worry that France’s difficulties acquiring MIRV technology could be repeated in North Korea-Russia relations. U.S. limited support by providing help in a “yes or no” format, significantly impacting technological advancements.
Given that Russia has recognized the legitimacy of North Korea’s Hwasong-19 provocations while providing support for equipment and personnel, there are concerns that bilateral military cooperation may strengthen in the future.
Following a strategic dialogue with North Korea in Moscow on Friday, Russia expressed its complete support for the measures implemented by North Korean leadership aimed at countering the aggressive policies of the U.S. and its allies and ensuring peace and stability in the region.
South Korean government has reaffirmed its positive stance on international cooperation. Even the support of lethal weapons depends on the level of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.
Prime Minister Han Duck Soo stated in a budget address for 2025, “The recent international security situation and illegal military cooperation between North Korea and Russia pose a significant threat to our security. We will thoroughly prepare measures by examining all possibilities.
During a meeting with representatives from five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—President Yoon Suk Yeol stated, “The international community must unite to respond to the challenges posed by the North Korea-Russia alliance that threatens global peace and security.”
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