China’s Rising Power: The Fallout of Trump’s Expected Pullback from Global Organizations

President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to reduce America’s global commitments, is expected to immediately withdraw from major international organizations upon taking office, signaling a shift towards isolationism. With this move, there are growing concerns that China may seize the opportunity to fill the void left by the U.S. and assert its dominance on key global issues. 

According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun on Thursday, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on Tuesday adjusting member states’ contribution rates for the regular budget from 2025 to 2027. The United States, the top contributor, maintains its 22% share. On the other hand, China, the second-largest contributor, saw its share increase significantly by 4.75% to 20.005%, surpassing the 20% threshold for the first time. Japan retained its third-place position, but its contribution rate dropped from 8.033% to 6.930%. Citing diplomatic sources, the Nikkei noted, “This adjustment reflects the economic landscape up to 2019, before COVID-19,” highlighting China’s growing global influence.

The UN’s financial contribution rates are a key indicator of a nation’s position in the international community. The rates are readjusted every three years based on economic indicators such as each country’s gross national income (GNI). The higher the contribution rate, the greater the influence on various UN agendas. China has rapidly narrowed the gap with the United States in recent years, with a maximum contribution rate of 22%.

China also demands an increase in its quota share within the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The quota share, which determines voting power allocation in the IMF, is readjusted every five years. Currently, the U.S. holds the largest quota share at 17.42%, followed by Japan (6.47%), China (6.40%), and Germany (5.59%). The IMF quota shares are calculated based on factors such as GDP, economic openness, volatility, and foreign exchange reserves. If quota shares were recalculated based on last year’s financial data, China (14.4%) could reach a level comparable to the U.S. (14.8%).

Analysts predict that if Trump’s second administration intensifies its isolationist policies, China will likely become more aggressive in expanding its global influence. Trump is reportedly planning to initiate the process of withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO) on his first day in office. He has consistently expressed dissatisfaction with the role and financial contributions the U.S. has shouldered in the international community. During his campaign, Trump hinted at withdrawing from organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), and the Paris Climate Agreement. Many key international organizations and agreements could face existential threats if the U.S. withdraws from them as the largest contributor. The Nikkei reported that it would be challenging for Europe and Japan to fill the void left by the U.S. and added that there is significant room for China to expand its influence further.