Trade Secrets Part 1: North Korea’s Mig-29 Swap with Russia Sends Shockwaves

As the war between Russia and Ukraine drags on, the most notable aspect is the deepening ties between North Korea and Russia.

South Korean military authorities previously revealed that over 3 million shells capable of being carried in approximately 6,700 containers have been transferred from North Korea to Russia since July-August last year. Defense Minister Shin Won Sik recently estimated at a press conference that the number of containers transferred from North Korea to Russia is around 6,700, stating, “It could be over 3 million 152mm shells or over 500 thousand 122mm artillery shells. There’s a possibility that both types of shells were mixed, and at least a few million have been sent.”

A military source also said, “Considering the shortage of raw materials and electricity, the operation rate of hundreds of North Korean military factories is low, at about 30%. The factories producing shells provided to Russia are operating at full capacity.” Meanwhile, North Korean-made shells and remnants of KN-23 and KN-24 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) have been found one after another on the battlefield in Ukraine. However, Russia and North Korea have consistently denied the fact of their arms trade.

Nevertheless, with the confirmation that a transport plane, presumed to be carrying Russian military personnel, arrived in Pyongyang, the speculation about the arms trade between North Korea and Russia has solidified from suspicion to confirmation. Military authorities believe that food is the largest portion of the aid provided by Russia and that military technology has also been provided to North Korea. Minister Shin also said, “North Korea is requesting technology related to aircraft and ground mobility equipment from Russia.”

The mig-29 assembly line is still not dismantled

Therefore, the biggest concern of the intelligence authorities is what North Korea will receive in return if it starts supplying weapons to Russia. Due to Western sanctions, Russia cannot send dollars or euros to North Korea. Since North Korea is also likely to request goods instead of dollars or euros, what goods have been transferred to North Korea?

The National Intelligence Service analyzed in a report to the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee that North Korea requested Russia for the repair of old equipment and technology transfer. This may include technologies related to submarines, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and military reconnaissance satellites. However, the most worrying field is fighter jets.

North Korea decided to introduce the Mig-29 fighter jets from the Soviet Union following Kim Il Sung’s visit to Moscow in 1988. It installed a fighter jet assembly line at the Banghyeon Aircraft Manufacturing Plant in Pyeonganbuk-do. The Mig-29s supplied to North Korea by the Soviet Union are 11 completed aircraft, including the single-seat C-type and the two-seat UB-type.

However, it is known that not all aircraft were assembled due to the suspension of technical support from Russia in 1993. Since then, North Korea has made efforts in every possible way to smuggle Mig-29 fighter jet parts from Belarus and Ukraine but has not achieved significant results. For over 30 years, the North Korean Air Force has been unable to procure new fighter jets. Moreover, the intelligence authorities believe North Korea has not yet dismantled the Mig-29 assembly line built with a large investment.

The South Korean military estimates North Korea is receiving technology related to satellites, as they have failed to launch twice, nuclear technology transfer and cooperation, and air defense systems, particularly fighter jets or related parts. The National Intelligence Service’s analysis is said to be the same as this military estimate.

The National Intelligence Service focuses on the fact that North Korea is selecting candidates to receive flight maintenance training in Russia to bring in aircraft such as fighter jets and passenger planes from Russia. This is interpreted as information that Russian fighter jets or related parts are being provided to North Korea.

Military experts analyze that, from the standpoint of North Korea, which is pushing for modernization of the Air Force, Mig-29 or related parts would be the first choice. Shin Jong Woo, Secretary-General of the Korea Defense Security Forum, analyzed, “North Korea’s fighter jets have a low operating rate due to parts supply problems, and it is known that about 10 Mig-29 aircraft are operated by rotating. If parts are supplied from Russia, it is expected that the number of operating aircraft will increase, and performance improvements on electronic warfare equipment of the early Mig-29 will be carried out.”

Part 2…
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