China is escalating its countermeasures against Western sanctions, particularly those imposed by the United States. It is considering imposing retaliatory tariffs against the high tariffs set by the U.S. and is exploring alternative trade partners such as Russia and Brazil. China has also hinted at retaliation against the European Union (EU) for initiating investigations into Chinese companies in sectors like railway, solar power, and electric cars, indicating a full-scale trade war against Western nations.
According to the Global Times, agricultural experts from China and Russia have been discussing matters regarding cooperation on food security and food processing during the 8th China-Russia Expo held in Harbin, China. They emphasized Russia’s potential in soybean cultivation and export as a significant milestone in bilateral cooperation. The Global Times predicted a significant increase in Russian soybean imports to meet market demands for diversifying supply sources and reducing reliance on a single supplier. China has emphasized that its soybean supply is stable due to increased domestic production and secured import volumes. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s soybean production increased by 2.8% to 20.84 million tons (approximately 22.95 million U.S. tons) last year compared to the same period the previous year.
Soybeans, the primary feed for pigs, are crucial to Chinese pork production, making China the world’s largest soybean importer. Last year, China imported approximately 109.57 million U.S. tons an increase of 11.4% from the previous year. The main import sources are the United States and Brazil, but while the proportion of imports from Brazil is on the rise, those from the U.S. are declining.
Some speculate that China could reduce U.S. soybean imports and target them for retaliatory tariffs. When the U.S. announced high tariffs on 1,300 Chinese goods in 2018, China immediately imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans. China, a major importer of one-third of U.S. soybean production, caused soybean prices to plummet in the international raw materials market and the value of the dollar to drop sharply due to its retaliatory tariff measures.
China has also threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on the EU. According to Bloomberg on the 18th, the EU started subsidizing investigations into Chinese companies in the railway, solar power, and security sectors under new overseas subsidy regulations. In response, a Chinese state-run media outlet warned, “China has sufficient countermeasures, and if the EU continues to take action, there is a high possibility that China will have to take a series of measures to fight back.” The China Chamber of Commerce in the EU also issued a statement saying, “This warning is serious,” and “European wine and dairy products could be targeted.”
Following the U.S., the Canadian government is also reportedly considering a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese electric cars. Mary Ng, Canada’s Minister of Trade, said in an interview with Bloomberg, “We’re looking very carefully at this issue and having open conversations with our U.S. partners.” Canada currently imposes a relatively low tariff of about 6% on Chinese vehicles.
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