China’s population has continued to decline due to the younger generation’s reluctance to marry and have children, pushing the country closer to a demographic cliff. Given the current circumstances, it’s safe to say that this situation is unlikely to improve anytime soon.
According to media outlets such as Xinmin Evening News, which cited data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics recently released 2024 China Statistical Yearbook, China’s population last year was estimated at 1,409.67 million, a decrease of 2.08 million from the previous year. This figure represents more than double the decline of 850,000 seen in 2022, highlighting an accelerating demographic cliff.
The seriousness of China’s situation, which saw its population decline for the first time in 61 years in 2022, is also evident in the natural population growth rate. Last year, the rate was -1.48%, a significant drop of 0.88 percentage points from the previous year’s -0.6%. Only eight out of 31 provincial-level and autonomous regions maintained a positive natural growth rate, which is concerning.
These eight regions include Guangdong, Hainan, Guizhou, Qinghai, and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, as well as Tibet, Ningxia Hui, and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Regions. However, their population growth rates were not exceptionally high, and they could eventually face a sustained population decline similar to Beijing and Shanghai.
The trend of young Chinese people avoiding marriage and childbirth is beyond critical. There’s no need to cite other examples; the drop in newborns from around 18 million in 2016 to just 9.02 million last year clearly illustrates this. This phenomenon is unprecedented not only in China but also in human history. Like South Korea, China may need to implement extraordinary measures.
Recently, the central and local governments have introduced various measures. However, these efforts seem insufficient to prevent the population cliff. Liang Jianzhang, a prominent entrepreneur and demographer, has emphasized the need for a 10 trillion yuan ($1.39 trillion) investment over the next few years, which speaks volumes about the gravity of the situation.
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