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Citigroup Warns: Trump’s Tariff Threat Could Send Copper Prices Crashing

theguru Views  

BHP
BHP

Citigroup forecasts a bearish copper market for the coming year, citing concerns over potential trade policies from the incoming Trump administration and economic risks in China. These variables serve as key negative factors impacting copper consumption and prices.

Industry reports on Tuesday reveal that Citigroup has significantly lowered its copper price projection to $8,750 per ton by 2025, a substantial reduction from its previous estimate of $10,250.

In a recent report, a team led by Citigroup analyst Max Layton suggests that the global manufacturing recovery may be delayed until after 2025. This delay is attributed to tightening monetary policies in developed nations and reduced support for electric vehicle initiatives.

Copper prices have already fallen 20% from their record highs set in Mamainlyely due to concerns about weakening demand in China and a strengthening U.S. dollar. The copper market outlook has further deteriorated following President-elect Trump’s proposal to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, despite expectations of additional fiscal stimulus from Beijing.

Citigroup anticipates a balanced, refined copper market next year. While consumption in cyclical demand sectors is expected to plateau, the bank foresees increased demand driven by decarbonization efforts. However, the ongoing slowdown in mining supply growth could offset these factors.

The bank projects that copper prices could reach $10,000 per ton by 2026 as global manufacturing begins to recover in response to monetary easing policies.

Citigroup has also revised its forecasts for other base metals, lowering its aluminum price outlook by approximately 4% to $2,640 per ton and predicting a 5% decrease for zinc to $2,800 per ton.

As of Monday morning, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) stood at $9,100.50 per ton, reflecting a 0.2% decline. Other metals generally exhibited stable or downward price trends.

theguru
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