Nearly 70% of Our Oceans Could Suffer Year-Round Heatwaves by 2100

A recent study has once again highlighted the severity of climate change.

A study released on June 21 by Professor Cho Yang Ki’s research team at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Seoul National University predicts that by 2100, nearly 70% of the world’s oceans will experience year-round heatwaves due to ongoing carbon emissions. This significant increase in ocean temperatures is expected to lead to more severe typhoons and extreme weather events on land.

The study published in the international academic journal Earth’s Future compares shared startling results from the average sea surface temperature changes under two scenarios: a low-carbon scenario (SSP 1-1.9), in which carbon neutrality is achieved by 2050, and a high-carbon scenario (where carbon emissions in 2100 are double the current level).

The average sea surface temperature in the high-carbon scenario is predicted to increase by up to 2.70 degrees compared to the average from 1985 to 2014 between 2071 and 2100. 

However, in the low-carbon scenario, the increase in sea surface temperature nearly stopped after the 2050s, with a rise of 0.53-0.61 degrees. 

Marine heatwaves are caused by increased sea surface temperature. 

It is a phenomenon where the sea surface temperature records abnormally high temperatures for more than five days compared to the average. If carbon neutrality is achieved, this phenomenon is predicted to decrease significantly.

However, if carbon emissions continue to rise, the duration of marine heatwaves will increase, and 68% of the world’s oceans will be exposed to this phenomenon year-round. Notably, 93% of the Indian Ocean, 76% of the Pacific Ocean, and 68% of the Atlantic Ocean will be affected by permanent marine heatwaves.

Cho explained that the ocean contains 1,000 times more heat than the atmosphere, making it a key factor in determining how much the Earth’s temperature will rise or fall.

He emphasized that climate change can affect humanity much longer than the economy and that international cooperation, not just the efforts of specific countries, is important to achieve carbon neutrality.

This study delivers an important message that calls for global cooperation and concrete actions to address climate change.

To reduce the intensity and frequency of marine heatwaves, it is an urgent task for each country to set goals towards carbon neutrality and prepare specific policies to achieve them.