Kim Jong Un’s Three-Day War: Plan to Crush South Korea Before U.S. Intervention

Kim Yo Jong, the deputy director of North Korea’s Workers’ Party, sharply criticized the South Korean military’s statement regarding the alleged infiltration of a South Korean drone over Pyongyang. She warned that any future drone incursions into North Korean airspace would result in “catastrophic” consequences. Her statement, issued on October 12 via state media, accused South Korean officials of offering “shameless and childish excuses” to evade responsibility. She further declared, “If they believe they can dismiss this serious violation of our sovereignty by merely denying it, they are gravely mistaken.”

North Korea has escalated tensions on the Korean Peninsula with a continued series of nuclear threats, missile launches, and balloon provocations, totaling 28 incidents since May 28. The North now claims that South Korean military drones have violated Pyongyang’s airspace and has threatened military retaliation in response.

Experts are increasingly concerned that the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula has reached its highest point since the 1950 Korean War. Robert Manning, a senior researcher at the U.S.-based Stimson Center, addressed the issue in Foreign Policy, noting that while an immediate war may not be likely, North Korea’s actions have raised the likelihood of significant military moves in the next six to 18 months. Manning cited Kim Jong Un’s nuclear declarations and his hostile characterization of inter-Korean relations as substantial threats.

As North Korea signals the potential for military provocations, tensions between the two Koreas have soared. This renewed aggression has brought North Korea’s “Three-Day War” operational plan, first revealed in 2013, back into focus.

While Kim Jong Il once promoted military exercises based on a “Six-Day War” model, Kim Jong Un has shifted to a more aggressive strategy centered on a “Three-Day War,” placing heavy emphasis on special operations forces. The objective remains the same: a rapid invasion of South Korea aimed at occupying the entire country through swift action by North Korean special forces.

A North Korean propaganda video titled “A Short and Decisive War in Three Days” outlines their envisioned war scenario for the Korean Peninsula, which unfolds as follows:

• Day One: The conflict begins with a massive artillery barrage, as North Korean units unleash a 30-minute assault using 240mm multiple rocket launchers, 250,000 rounds of medium and long-range artillery, and 1,000 short-range missiles aimed at South Korean and U.S. military bases. Over 50,000 North Korean special forces would then conduct surprise attacks on crucial infrastructure, including military bases, radar stations, power plants, and ports, while capturing 150,000 Americans stationed in South Korea.
• Day Two: The assault escalates with a full-scale southern offensive. About 10,500 airborne troops would be deployed for urban warfare in major South Korean cities, while four corps advance with 4,600 tanks and 3,000 armored vehicles. Preemptive strikes would target U.S. military installations using powerful weapons to secure the upper hand.
• Day Three: The final day focuses on establishing control and stability. North Korean forces aim to disrupt essential services such as electricity, gas, transportation, and communication networks, plunging major South Korean cities, including Seoul, into chaos. The goal is swiftly occupying South Korea with minimal resistance and maintaining order in captured regions.

Military analysts have described this scenario as a “North Korean-style full-scale war” or “three-day blitzkrieg.”

Following the initial chaos caused by North Korea’s special forces and frontline corps, if missile strikes provide an advantage, the remaining troops would move in to complete their invasion of South Korea. The surprise attack is intended to turn off South Korea’s military command infrastructure, clearing the path for North Korea’s 1st, 2nd, and 5th corps to initiate full-scale combat.

In summary, North Korea’s special forces would strike preemptively at South Korean government agencies, critical infrastructure, and military command centers. A key element of their plan involves targeting the U.S. embassy to seize hostages, with the intent to deter U.S. military intervention. Should conflict break out, North Korea’s strategy involves overwhelming South Korea’s military positions with massive missile fire, aiming to neutralize core defenses and quickly conclude the war. This “Unification War” plan, reportedly discovered during Kim Young-sam’s administration, shares similarities with previous North Korean tactics. In response, South Korea’s military has allegedly adjusted its operational doctrines and frontline defense systems to account for North Korea’s shift from infantry-led invasions to the deployment of mechanized units.

South Korean military analysis of the North Korean invasion scenario includes:

1. the rapid deployment of mechanized units with minimal artillery and units stationed in the rear,
2. intensive preparatory firing for 5-6 hours using artillery and missiles,
3. the use of chemical munitions in 30% of artillery fire, and
4. large-scale infiltration by special operations forces into both frontline and rear areas.

North Korean military leadership has implemented measures to ensure a swift victory in the event of a three-day war. This includes establishing underground communication lines, deploying large numbers of troops for surprise strikes, and countering advanced U.S. surveillance equipment under Kim Jong Il’s guidance. Hwang Jang Yop, a former high-ranking North Korean official who defected during Kim Young-sam’s administration, confirmed that North Korea intended to deploy 100,000 special forces at the outset of hostilities. These forces would aim to seize Busan within 3-5 days using mechanized units while simultaneously deterring U.S. and Japanese intervention with long-range missiles.

North Korea’s new routes for infiltration into South Korea have also been revealed. Their military strategy is designed for total control of the Korean Peninsula within 3-5 days of conflict, with simultaneous attacks via the west coast and the Munsan and Gwangdeoksan axes. South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that this new invasion route was created to launch a triangular assault on the capital region, considering the historical concentration of allied forces along the traditional Seoul-bound invasion path. During a 2013 National Assembly intelligence hearing, then-Defense Intelligence Agency chief Cho Boo-geun disclosed that North Korea had forward-deployed 70% of its forces (approximately 700,000 troops) and 80% of its firepower within 100 kilometers of the DMZ, signifying a more aggressive posture compared to prior deployments. This suggests a preparation for a quicker attack than in previous years.