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AI-Powered Drones with 80% Kill Rate Are Changing the Face of Combat

Daniel Kim Views  

Army soldiers prepare to launch unmanned aerial vehicles. Photo courtesy of the Army
Army soldiers prepare to launch unmanned aerial vehicles. Photo courtesy of the Army

Loitering munitions, once sparingly used, has become a cornerstone of modern military strategy. Their prominence has surged amidst the Ukraine-Russia conflict, where these versatile weapons rival traditional cruise missiles in cost-effectiveness and precision. Early in the war, the U.S.-made Switchblade loitering munitions were deployed sparingly, having been used exclusively by American forces since 2012. However, as the conflict intensified, Ukraine began leveraging domestically produced loitering munitions, enabling strikes as far as Moscow. Meanwhile, Russia countered with Iranian-made Shahed drones, targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure.

In 2023, former Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger underscored the game-changing potential of loitering munitions, stating, “Infantry can now precisely engage targets beyond artillery range. Ground forces have been given air power capabilities.” This marks a significant evolution in military tactics, granting infantry units capabilities once reserved for helicopters and fighter jets. The Ukraine conflict is now regarded as the largest deployment of loitering munitions in history.

Loitering Munitions: The Backbone of Modern Warfare

Gen. Berger’s observations accurately reflect the growing impact of loitering munitions in modern warfare. Military experts unanimously agree that the Ukraine conflict will be recorded as the most extensive deployment of loitering munitions in history.

The loitering munitions supplied by the U.S. to Ukraine, including the Phoenix Ghost, Switchblade, and Altius, were initially used only in the early stages of the war. However, as the conflict persisted, Ukraine began manufacturing its own loitering munitions, integrating them as a central component of its military arsenal. Russia has also imported large quantities of Iran’s Shahed-136 for use in airstrikes against Ukraine. Simultaneously, Russia has tripled production of its domestically manufactured loitering munition, the Lancet.

According to Bard College’s Center for the Study of the Drone, the number of countries developing loitering munitions has skyrocketed—from 8 nations with 35 systems in 2017 to 32 nations with 210 systems by 2023. This growth highlights their rising strategic importance. Yet, South Korea lags, relying primarily on imported systems like Israel’s Harpy while working to field its first domestically produced loitering munitions by the end of the year.

Technological Milestones: Smaller, Smarter, More Lethal

A loitering munition unveiled during the Armed Forces Day parade on September 26, 2023. Credit: Yonhap News

The roots of loitering munitions trace back to the 1989 Israeli-developed Harpy, designed to suppress enemy radar systems. Today, these systems have evolved dramatically. Iran’s Shahed-136, for example, boasts a range of 2,500 km, carries a 30–50 kg warhead, and costs just $20,000 per unit—showcasing its affordability and operational impact. Similarly, the U.S. Switchblade 600, equipped with electric motors for stealthy operation, specifically targets moving armor over a 90 km range.

Russia, by contrast, has deployed loitering munitions as low-cost cruise missiles. However, technical issues such as noisy engines and limited navigation capabilities restrict their effectiveness against fixed targets like infrastructure.

U.S. Army Embraces Loitering Munitions with LASSO Program

The Warmate loitering munition was developed by the Polish defense firm WB Group. Credit: WB Group

The battlefield success of loitering munitions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict has led the U.S. Army to incorporate these systems at the ground level. Under the Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance (LASSO) program, announced in July, Infantry Brigade Combat Teams (IBCTs) will be equipped with advanced loitering munitions. This integration represents a significant shift in tactical warfare, enabling battalions to strike precisely beyond traditional artillery range.

In stark contrast, South Korea’s loitering munition capabilities remain underdeveloped. The military relies heavily on Israeli-made systems, such as the Harpy, operated by the Air Force, and a limited number of Rotem-L units used by the Army’s special mission brigade for decapitation operations. These specialized systems are ill-suited for broader operational use, reflecting a significant gap in South Korea’s defense capabilities.

While over 200 types of loitering munitions are in use globally, South Korea’s inventory remains limited to small numbers of S-2 and tube-launched S-4 drones operated by the Drone Operations Command. These constraints have restricted the military’s ability to fully integrate loitering munitions into conventional operations, leaving a critical gap in its tactical arsenal.

The South Korean military has taken steps to address this capability gap, signing a contract for 200 Polish-made Warmate loitering munitions. By year’s end, plans are in place to field dozens of domestically produced systems. The Ministry of National Defense is currently testing and evaluating operational deployment. They anticipate expanding the scale of deployment alongside improvements in domestic drone capabilities.

South Korea’s Struggle to Keep Pace

Despite global advancements, South Korea lags in loitering munition development. The military relies on imported systems like Israel’s Harpy and Polish Warmate drones, with limited domestic production. However, South Korea is actively addressing this gap. The Ministry of National Defense plans to deploy domestically produced loitering munitions by the end of the year, supported by ongoing testing and evaluation. These efforts aim to expand the nation’s operational capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign systems.

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) is propelling loitering munitions to unprecedented levels of efficiency. Russia has begun incorporating AI into drone processors, allowing autonomous flight and precision engagement. According to U.S. defense company Palantir, Ukraine has responded with AI-guided systems, improving drone accuracy from 50% to 80%. The Saker reconnaissance drone, equipped with AI, can identify and target personnel or vehicles within a 10 km radius, while Israel’s “Lavender” software uses AI to assign threat scores for automated precision strikes.

The rapid adoption of AI in autonomous weapons raises ethical concerns. Some experts liken this development to an “AI Oppenheimer moment,” drawing parallels to the moral dilemmas surrounding nuclear weapons. However, the practical advantages in current conflicts, including enhanced targeting precision and reduced operator workload, have accelerated adoption.

Loitering munitions, powered by advancements in AI and cost-effective design, are shaping the future of combat. As nations race to develop and deploy these systems, they underscore a transformative shift in modern military tactics. For South Korea, closing the capability gap will be essential to maintaining a competitive defense posture in a rapidly evolving strategic landscape.

Daniel Kim
content@viewusglobal.com

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