Trade Secrets Part 2: North Korea’s Mig-29 Swap with Russia Sends Shockwaves

Inferior North Korean Air Force Must Rely on Mig-29

North Korea built a Mig-29 assembly plant in cooperation with the old Soviet Union in Pyeonganbuk-do and started assembly in 1988 while bringing in parts. It is known that 20 aircraft were assembled and produced, starting with the first two in April 1993 to commemorate President Kim Il Sung’s birthday. A few of them crashed, and it is reported that about 10 remain in operation.

The problem is that the factory operation was suspended due to the collapse of the old Soviet Union, among other reasons, and North Korea is having trouble procuring Mig-29 parts. Even the rotation of the parts has reached its limit. The rest of the Mig series fighters are in the same situation. They barely survive by dismantling one Mig and taking out related parts to fill in another one.

North Korea’s Mig-29s are inferior to our Air Force’s F-15Ks in output, maneuverability, long-range cruising ability, and air-to-air and air-to-ground weapon systems. Their radar detection range and the range of AA-10 air-to-air missiles are also short. To fight an air battle with the F-15Ks, the radar and air-to-air missiles must be replaced at most negligible.

The South Korean Air Force has long changed the virtual enemy from Mig-29s to Suhoi (Su) fighters for their training due to the poor performance of their Mig-29s. As the North Korean Air Force is inferior to the South Korean, with F-35A stealth fighters in addition to the F-15Ks, it is only reasonable to rely on the Mig-29, which is the most modern for them.

In reality, North Korea cannot develop its fighter aircraft. Even if it were to modernize its air force, it would still pale compared to the overwhelming qualitative superiority of the combined forces of South Korea and the United States. Therefore, investing in fighter aircraft would yield minimal results. Instead, it focuses on significantly enhancing its short-range ballistic missile and artillery firepower to potentially decimate all South Korean air bases in the opening stages of a conflict.

This strategic decision reflects a judgment that, by projecting massive firepower, the combined forces of South Korea and the U.S. would not have the opportunity to deploy their fighter aircraft. The introduction of North Korean versions of the global hawk, “Saebyeol-4 type,” or the Reaper, “Saebyeol-9 type,” only demonstrates a shift in North Korea’s military strategy.

For several years, North Korea has been sending strong signals about the introduction of new fighter aircraft. In the fall of 2022, the Suncheon Air Base, responsible for Pyongyang’s air defense, completed major construction projects such as runway extensions, the installation of surface-to-air missiles, and underground facilities. North Korea extended the runway from 2500m to 2800m.

This indicates they are preparing to operate heavier aircraft from this base than the existing fighter jets. Military experts consider the most likely new fighters to be the JH-7 fighter bombers, which have been transferred from the Chinese Navy’s air squadron to the Air Force and are being prepared for mass retirement. Furthermore, recent surges in arms deals between North Korea and Russia have brought the MiG-29 to the forefront as another viable option. The abundance of Mig-29 stockpiles in Russia and its status as a non-primary model for the Russian Air Force contributes to its potential appeal.

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