North Korea’s Game Plan: More Nuclear Tests, New Military Alliances, and Tensions with the U.S.

Analysts predict North Korea will showcase a closer military and diplomatic relationship with Russia next year. As Donald Trump prepares for office, they expect frequent provocations aimed at the U.S.

The Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) released a report on Thursday titled “2024 Situation Assessment and 2025 Outlook,” which indicates that North Korea will likely see increased military-technical support and cooperation from Russia next year. This suggests that North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war, arms support, and the ratification of new treaties will become more evident. There are predictions that Russia might acknowledge North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, provide technical support for nuclear submarines, reconnaissance satellites, satellite launch vehicles, and hypersonic missile warheads, and conduct joint military exercises in the East Sea. Suppose North Korea receives missile technology from Russia. In that case, North Korea may attempt to demonstrate its re-entry technology capabilities through the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at standard angles, a feat it has yet to achieve. North Korea may also seek technical support from Russia to enhance its drone capabilities.

North Korea appears determined to prioritize its relationship with Russia, aiming to maintain close ties for as long as possible. Analysts suggest North Korea will expand support for military supplies and troop deployments based on a new treaty with Russia, establishing a military alliance to counter the U.S.-South Korea alliance and the trilateral cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. Through exchanges of vital strategic materials such as oil and food with Russia, North Korea will likely pursue a strategy to bolster Kim’s “20×10 Regional Development Policy” and undermine UN sanctions against it. By increasing contacts with pro-Russian countries and multilateral organizations influenced by Russia, North Korea may enhance its international standing and expand its foreign relations.

North Korea is expected to attempt frequent provocations to test the Trump administration’s stance on the North. Major methods of provocation could include the relaunch of reconnaissance satellites, increased troop deployments to Russia, the release of a revised constitution, threats of nuclear tests, and the unveiling of nuclear submarine construction. The report states, “While there is a strong possibility that North Korea will engage in strategic dialogue with the U.S., the current domestic and international circumstances for North Korea are fundamentally different from those during Trump’s first term, especially with North Korea having the solid backing of Russia, making smooth progress in U.S.-North Korean talks unlikely. North Korea will relentlessly pressure the Trump administration to gain concessions such as recognition of its nuclear status and the lifting of economic sanctions while pursuing a strategy to fracture the U.S.-South Korea alliance and isolate South Korea.”

Experts from the INSS contributed to the report. Since 2008, the INSS has published situation assessments and outlooks, which it distributes to domestic and international think tanks and relevant institutions, including universities. The full report is available for download on the INSS website.