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The 14th session of China’s Two Sessions (National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference) is expected to close smoothly after discussing various current issues, including economic recovery, with the closing ceremony of the NPC on the afternoon of the 11th. However, the future political outlook is not expected to be very bright, especially since the economic path ahead is forecasted to be tough.
According to a message from diplomatic sources in Beijing on the 10th, it would not be wrong to say that this year’s meeting attracted more attention from both inside and outside China than ever before. First of all, politically, it can have considerable significance in that it strengthened the one-man ruling system of General Secretary and President Xi Jinping. Reflecting this, the BBC and other foreign media in the UK are evaluating that he has entered a long-term mode of power.
This can be well understood by looking at the fact that the press conference held by the second-in-command in the party and government hierarchy, the Prime Minister, was virtually abolished this year. It’s not a coincidence that people say that Prime Minister Li Qiang’s status is incomparable to that of the late Li Qiang, who was once close to Xi.
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The weakening status of the State Council, which is expected to be determined through the amendment of the related law for the first time in 40 years, should also be mentioned. The prime minister’s status will certainly be adjusted to be significantly lower than before. It can be said that Prime Minister Li has been legally formalized to not even look at Xi. The fact that Zhao Leji, the chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, and Wang Huning, the chairman of the CPPCC, who chaired this session, showed a polite attitude to the point where they could not even make eye contact with Xi at the conference, is not surprising in this regard.
It is noteworthy that despite various challenging conditions, the Chinese government has set a growth rate target of around 5% and is determined to revive the economy by any means necessary. However, it is disappointing that there was no decisive move for large-scale economic stimulus despite discussions of various measures to achieve the target. Overall, it is commendable that the government did not alter its original plan in light of the widespread pessimism in China.
The discussion of the possibility of becoming stuck in unemployment, low birth rate, and the extension of retirement age also seems to remind me of the significance of this meeting. However, all these things will fade in importance if there is a hitch in achieving a 5% growth rate target. Considering various circumstances, it is difficult to say that the outlook is very bright. In this case, it can only be confirmed that the long-term outlook for the Chinese economy is not solid.
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