Experts have warned that North Korea may launch significant military provocations backed by Russian support and an enhanced nuclear arsenal.
Sydney Seiler, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and former North Korea officer for the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), stated on Monday in his CSIS commentary, “… the United States now faces a new provocation environment on the peninsula. What was once considered dangerous but ultimately containable North Korean coercive diplomacy could evolve into something more dangerous and fundamentally threatening to the status quo.”
Seiler noted, “Although higher-end provocation options may have been seen by Kim Jong Un as unnecessarily risky in the past, backed by a growing nuclear arsenal and Russia’s support, Kim may feel more comfortable taking chances. Overconfidence in his nuclear deterrent may lead Kim Jong Un to coercive actions not seen in the recent past.”
According to Seiler, the aim of such provocations could be to increase pressure on South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, shift the U.S. and South Korea from a tough stance to a more conciliatory approach, and prevent the flow of external information into North Korea, which the regime sees as a threat.
Seiler emphasized that while a direct war with North Korea may not be imminent, the risk of smaller-scale military actions—such as an attack on a South Korean island or naval vessel—has grown. Referring to past incidents like the 2010 sinking of the South Korean Corvette Cheonan, he noted that similar provocations in the near future are a real possibility, making it vital for the U.S. and South Korea to prepare.
By addressing North Korea’s significant increases in nuclear and missile capabilities compared to 2010 when it sunk the Corvette Cheonan, he added, “A 2025 island shelling, ship sinking, or other military attack on South Korea is a sufficiently possible scenario for which planning needs to take place today.”
Seiler added that this year presents unique challenges for North Korea’s messaging toward the U.S., citing the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as natural disasters in the U.S. These factors, along with upcoming U.S. elections, could delay North Korea’s most significant provocations until after the new administration is in place.
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