A Taiwanese scholar has predicted that Xi Jinping will step down from his position as general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party in 2032, a role he has held since November 2012.
According to Taiwanese media outlets, including the Economic Daily, a researcher from the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica shared this forecast during the 2024 Forum on Comprehensive Review of China’s Situation and Future Development Trends, hosted by National Chengchi University’s Institute of East Asian Studies.
The researcher noted that while Xi maintains a strong grip on power with no apparent signs of challenge, his health remains the most significant threat to the 70-year-old leader.
The prediction that Xi might resign as General Secretary was interpreted as a strategic move to reduce his substantial workload.
Currently, Xi serves as China’s supreme leader, holding the roles of General Secretary of the Communist Party, president, and chairman of the Central Military Commission.
The researcher predicts that even if Xi steps down as General Secretary, he will likely retain control over the military as Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
Additionally, it was suggested that Xi would focus on promoting science and technology experts and laying the groundwork for succession before 2032. However, this could potentially lead to political instability within China.
The researcher anticipates that the five-year period from 2027 to 2032 will be crucial for Chinese politics and cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan.
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