Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has predicted a bull market this summer. This is mainly due to the historically high levels of stock trading that begin in early July and traditionally mark the start of summer.
In an investment report on June 6, Goldman Sachs indicated that they are observing more positive signals in the market this summer. They noted that key market participants, including companies like Nvidia and Walmart Inc., are demonstrating strength.
Goldman Sachs emphasized that the stock market in early July could attract significant funds through passive stock allocation, potentially serving as a springboard for a bullish market throughout the early summer.
Goldman’s Global Markets Division managing director and tactical specialist Scott Rubner predicted a rise in the stock market this summer, nothing that the first half of July has traditionally been the strongest period for the S&P 500 index since 1928.
Rubner observed that there tends to be a rapid influx of money into the stock market at the onset of the third quarter and the second half of the year. He also noted that individual traders often reengage with the market in July.
According to Rubner’s evaluation, the first two weeks of July have been the most active time for stock trading for the past 100 years. Although there is an average tendency to slow down after July 17, approximately nine basis points of new funds flowed in during July. It is estimated that this year, about $26 billion of funds will pour in.
The S&P 500 index has also shown positive returns, averaging 3.7% in the first half of July for the past nine consecutive years. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 index has continued a bullish trend, averaging a 4.6% return in July for the past 16 years.
Predictions have also been made that the stock market rally will continue, given the rise of large-cap stocks after the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November this year.
Wells Fargo emphasized, “The S&P 500 index could rise to around 5700 in the post-election rally,” adding, “It can provide significant returns to investors beyond dividend income at current levels.”
They further recommended, “Investors should maintain their overall exposure to U.S. large-cap stocks and avoid withdrawing cash to time a cheaper entry point later. Not only is it difficult to time the market for reinvestment later, but you could also miss out on performance over a few days.”
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