Diesel market share continues to slow, with European diesel vehicle sales down about 20,000 units in November 2024 compared to last year. According to GlobalData, the share in November was 13.1%, down from 14.6% a year ago and almost the same as in October 2024. This shows that the decline in diesel vehicle share continues.
While automakers ramp up sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) to meet mandatory zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) targets set for 2024, the UK’s already small diesel vehicle market has seen little change. However, the diesel vehicle market will face greater challenges in 2025, with stricter ZEV mandates and the EU’s new vehicle CO2 reduction program set to come into effect.
Cumulative diesel vehicle sales in Europe in 2024 are projected to be around 1.5 million units, down around 200,000 units from 2023. Germany remains the leading player in the European diesel vehicle market despite a 23,000-unit year-on-year decline in 2024, offsetting the sharp declines in France and Italy. However, with the German BEV market expected to recover in 2025, the chances of a repeat of the Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) strength in 2024 are slim.
Nevertheless, diesel vehicles will remain an important part of Germany’s premium powertrain mix for the next few years. Among manufacturers, Stellantis is expected to see the biggest change in the diesel vehicle market in 2024, while the others remain relatively stable.
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