Just five days after North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with potential implications for the U.S. presidential election, it escalated tensions by firing multiple short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) toward South Korea.
This action seems to showcase North Korea’s capabilities in both long-range and short-range nuclear missile systems, possibly in anticipation of future disarmament negotiations.
Analysts predict that while North Korea might leave room for negotiation regarding the long-range nuclear missiles targeting the U.S., it will likely maintain its short-range nuclear missiles linked to control over the Korean Peninsula.
On Tuesday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) reported that they detected multiple SRBMs launched around 7:30 AM from the Sariwon vicinity, North Hwanghae Province, which traveled approximately 400 kilometers (about 248 miles) over the East Sea.
A military official noted that the missiles were likely fired from 600mm multiple rocket launchers, with the projectiles landing in the East Sea. Launching from Sariwon, an unusual site, signals a potential threat from mobile launchers (TELs) capable of reaching South Korea’s southern coast.
Given that large-caliber rockets can potentially carry nuclear warheads, this indicates the possibility of surprise nuclear attacks across the Korean Peninsula.
A military official assessed the motive behind this provocation as a show of force in response to the joint U.S.-South Korea-Japan air drills involving American B-1B bombers, considering remarks made by the deputy director of the Workers’ Part Kim Yo Jong.
Earlier that morning, North Korea’s state-run media, KCNA, released statements from Kim Yo Jong on Tuesday.
She strongly opposed the joint air exercises and stated, “The ever-escalating hysteric military threats of the rivals will further highlight the justness and urgency of our line, and it will be implemented with corresponding dynamic and intensity.”
South Korean military authorities have noted that North Korea’s recent string of long- and short-range missile launches is unprecedented. A JCS official remarked, “This frequent and sequential SRBM launch right after an ICBM launch is unusual. North Korea likely aims to draw U.S. attention by intensifying threats to the Korean Peninsula before the presidential election, showcasing its strike capabilities.”
In response, South Korea and the U.S. are closely monitoring the situation, considering various scenarios, including potential tests of hypersonic missiles, reconnaissance satellites, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), or a seventh nuclear test. Furthermore, North Korea may engage in artillery fire toward the Northwestern Islands, drone deployments, or GPS signal jamming.
Experts believe North Korea will focus on standard-angle ICBM launches and a seventh nuclear test to verify its nuclear attack capabilities against the U.S. and South Korea. Testing may also assess re-entry technology for long-range missiles and miniaturized warheads for short-range missiles. South Korean military officials are particularly concerned about a seventh nuclear test, which poses a direct threat to the region. Though North Korea has revealed its Hwasan-31 small nuclear warhead, analysts say an actual test is crucial for performance validation.
A JCS official commented, “The recently launched missiles could carry small nuclear warheads. Miniaturizing these warheads is complex, and they haven’t tested it yet. Given their technological ambitions, they may be delaying until they’re ready.”
South Korean and U.S. officials have reiterated that North Korea could conduct a seventh nuclear test at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in Kilju County at any time, pending Kim Jong Un’s decision.
In response to North Korea’s provocations, the South Korean military plans to demonstrate its deterrent capabilities through live-fire exercises, deploying surface-to-surface Hyunmoo-2 missiles and surface-to-air Cheongung guided missiles. A JCS official stated, “Regardless of North Korea’s provocations, we are prepared to intercept and retaliate. We will also conduct joint drills to affirm our readiness alongside surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missile exercises.”
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