Recent reports have surfaced indicating that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may send up to 100,000 troops to aid Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine. Initial deployments have already seen around 10,000 North Korean soldiers entering combat in the Russian-occupied Kursk region of Ukraine. This number could increase significantly. In a direct response, U.S. President Joe Biden has greenlit the use of American-made long-range missiles by Ukrainian forces, a move Russia has sharply criticized, suggesting it could lead to a major escalation. The potential for a significant expansion of the conflict looms large, making it crucial for Seoul to enhance intelligence efforts and deploy monitoring teams to track the movements of North Korean military personnel.
Bloomberg’s recent coverage, citing insiders familiar with G20 discussions, reveals that the 100,000-strong troop contribution from North Korea is likely to be implemented through staggered rotations rather than a single, large-scale influx. Ukraine’s Ambassador to South Korea, Dmytro Ponomarenko, noted that as many as 15,000 North Korean troops could be operating in the Kursk and Donbas regions, with rotations planned every few months. Confidential sources hint at a gradual increase in deployment numbers, potentially reaching 88,000, despite expected reductions due to combat losses and withdrawals. This arrangement, reportedly agreed upon two years ago between Russia and North Korea, underscores a deepening military collaboration.
The New York Times reports that Biden has authorized the use of ATACMS missiles, with a range of 300km (186 miles), for potential strikes on Russian territory. With a single strike, these powerful long-range missiles can devastate an area equivalent to 4-5 soccer fields. Previously, the U.S. had restricted their use to prevent escalation. Biden’s decision to allow ATACMS use is seen as a strong deterrent message against further North Korean troop deployments. This move underscores the U.S. government’s serious concern regarding North Korea’s military support for Russia.
The South Korean government intends to coordinate with international partners in response to the North Korean-Russian military cooperation. However, Seoul has refrained from direct military support or deploying monitoring teams to Ukraine. While providing weapons involves complex diplomatic considerations, especially with Russia, the urgency of deploying monitoring teams cannot be overstated. Though deploying 100,000 North Korean troops may not be imminent, the high likelihood of additional deployments necessitates a more assertive and phased response from Seoul.
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