Will Kazakhstan and Other Former Soviet States Be Drawn into the Ukraine War? Putin’s Next Move!

As Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to discuss countermeasures with Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) allies in response to the U.S. approving ATACMS missile launches targeting Russia, tensions in the international community are escalating.

The Russian state news agency TASS reported on Sunday that Putin intends to officially address Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied ATACMS to strike Russian territory during his upcoming summit with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev this Wednesday.

According to TASS, Putin will visit Kazakhstan to discuss all aspects of the Ukraine crisis within the alliance framework. On November 28, he is scheduled to attend the CSTO summit, where this issue will be on the official agenda. The report noted that a fundamental alliance with mutual defense agreements binds Russia and Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan, which has maintained strict neutrality and balanced diplomacy between the West and Russia since the Ukraine conflict began, now finds itself in a precarious position. Concerns are growing that Putin may characterize the U.S. approval of ATACMS as Western aggression during his summit with Tokayev, potentially seeking Kazakhstan’s involvement in the conflict as an ally.

Until now, Putin’s designation of the Ukraine invasion as a “special military operation” has not triggered CSTO allies’ obligations to participate or provide support. However, the situation could shift dramatically if he uses the U.S. ATACMS approval to redefine the conflict as a full-scale war.

While the Kazakh government has not yet issued an official statement, Tokayev ordered increased security at key military and civilian facilities on Friday in response to the escalation of missile attacks in Ukraine. He also advised Kazakh citizens at their embassy in Ukraine to consider leaving the country.