North Korean Troops Are Changing the War in Kursk—Here’s What Ukraine Didn’t Expect

The North Korean military, previously dismissed as mere cannon fodder, has reportedly contributed to a reversal of fortunes in Russia’s Kursk region, placing Ukraine at a significant disadvantage.

Recent reports from U.S. officials, as cited by Bloomberg, indicate that Ukraine has already lost half of the territory it controlled in Kursk and could lose the rest within months.

Russia is expected to initiate a full-scale offensive in the region this month. Without a retreat by spring, Ukraine risks being encircled.

Kursk, which Ukraine seized in a surprise offensive last August, was seen as a valuable bargaining chip for future peace talks with Russia. The introduction of North Korean troops appears to have altered the battlefield dynamics significantly.

Russia reportedly deploys over 50,000 troops, engaging in desperate recapture operations. The 11,000 North Korean troops dispatched to Russia have also been deployed to the Kursk front.

As fighting intensifies, North Korean forces are struggling to adapt to modern warfare. South Korean and U.S. officials estimate that over 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or injured in Kursk in just the past ten days.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on December 23 that North Korean forces had suffered over 3,000 casualties since their deployment.

As Russia’s counteroffensive gains momentum, both sides are reportedly sustaining heavy losses, with thousands of casualties among Russian, North Korean, and Ukrainian forces.

Doubts Raised About the Necessity of Holding Kursk

This rapid change in circumstances is reportedly due to the accumulated fatigue and declining morale of the Ukrainian forces occupying the region, leading to growing doubts and unrest regarding the necessity of holding Kursk.

Concerns have arisen that President Zelensky’s gamble to defend Kursk might lead to unfavorable conditions on other Ukrainian fronts, resulting in strategic losses.

With Kursk spanning 984 square kilometers, Ukraine is said to lack sufficient troops to defend Kursk and repel Russian forces advancing into Ukraine simultaneously.

A Ukrainian military official reportedly told the AP that they had “literally stirred up a hornet’s nest,” creating another conflict zone.

Perhaps for this reason, Ukraine has not officially acknowledged evaluations that its forces are on the defensive.

In a written statement to AP, the Ukrainian General Staff asserted that their combat units continue to inflict daily losses on Russian personnel and equipment, insisting they are receiving adequate operational support.

“Troop deployments are managed considering the operational situation in mission areas based on situational awareness and operational information,” the General Staff added.

In reality, U.S.-supplied long-range missiles have slowed the Russian advance, and North Korean troops, lacking combat experience and moving in large formations across open terrain, are reportedly vulnerable to drone and artillery attacks, according to the Ukrainian military.

North Korean Troops: A Critical Factor in the Evolving Situation

With prospects of additional North Korean troop deployments emerging, analyses suggest this could become a significant variable in the current situation, where Ukrainian forces are observed to be on the defensive.

A U.S. intelligence official suggested that if Russia launches a large-scale counteroffensive, North Korea might deploy an additional 8,000 troops by next spring. However, the official cautioned that this information is not reliable.

Without North Korean forces, Russia is assessed to be able to replenish about 1,200 troops per day at the front. However, even this replenishment rate may soon become unfeasible without further mobilization of its citizens.

Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin is conscious of public backlash against reservist mobilizations following the Ukraine war.

Putin’s cautious approach stems from his desire to prevent the conflict from destabilizing his regime.

Currently, the Russian government refers to the Ukraine war as a special military operation and suppresses dissenting citizens through punitive measures.

In this context, in the battle to recapture Kursk—advancing infantry as “cannon fodder”—President Putin’s only reliable option may be to receive additional troop deployments from North Korea rather than his citizens.