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Analysts have suggested that Novo Nordisk (NVO) could have another potential blockbuster obesity treatment following Semaglutide, along with the clinical results of Amycretin (Amylin/GLP dual receptor).
Novo Nordisk’s stock price rose 9% on the day it announced the phase 1 clinical results of Amycretin. This product uses the same oral platform technology SNAC as applied in Rybelsus, and showed a 13.1% weight reduction after 12 weeks of administration in this phase 1 trial.
Seo Geun-Hee, an analyst at Samsung Securities, said, “Considering that the weight of patients decreased by 8% after 12 weeks of administering Eli Lilly’s obesity treatment Zepbound, Amycretin has been confirmed to have excellent weight loss effects as an oral formulation.” Seo added, “In particular, the average weight of the baseline patients was about 196 lbs, and it showed excellent weight loss effects even at a lower weight compared to other competing drugs.”
It is also under development as a SC formulation using the same substance, and it is expected that the SC formulation will have improved effects compared to the oral formulation.
Novo Nordisk plans to start phase 1 obesity trials for a single-action agent based on the Amylin mechanism, and phase 1 trials for a triple-action agent including Amylin.
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Novo Nordisk plans to expand indications starting with FDA approval based on phase 3 SELECT (cardiovascular) clinical trials related to Semaglutide on the 8th. By 2024, it plans to apply for FDA approval for STEP HFpEF (heart failure) and announce the results of phase 3 STRIDE (peripheral arterial disease) and SOUL (cardiovascular) clinical trials.
According to guidance, Novo Nordisk’s annual sales growth rate in 2024 is expected to increase by 18~26%, and the operating profit growth rate is also expected to increase by 21~29%.
Seo also stated, “Although the expected price-earnings ratio (PER) in 2024 is still high at 40.6 times, considering the growth potential of the GLP-1 market and Novo Nordisk’s expected monopoly period, the valuation will be re-rated.”
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