For South Korea, one word sums up 2025: resilience. The year opened with an impeached president and prime minister, rising social anxiety and an economic slump. It ended with a new president, renewed confidence and a recovering economy. The positive turn of events over the past year prompted The Economist to list South Korea among the contenders for its annual “country of the year” designation for the country that has improved the most in 2025. How did South Korea do it? And what does it mean for 2026?
A look at South Korean history since the democracy movements in the 1980s reveals two deep-structure tendencies that have helped the nation overcome moments of crisis. The first is rallying behind a practical approach when crises emerge.
Several key events illustrate this. In 1997, the Asian financial crisis forced South Korea to seek loans from the International Monetary Fund, which required sweeping economic reforms. Economic hardship was real, as people in what they thought were secure jobs suddenly found themselves unemployed. Despite the difficulties, the nation rallied together and supported newly elected President Kim Dae-jung’s reform program.
In late 2024, the public came together quickly to support the impeachment of then-President Yoon Suk Yeol for his attempt to impose martial law. Sustained pressure pushed the impeachment through, which the Constitutional Court upheld in a unanimous decision. The nation then rallied behind a smooth election to choose a new president and has so far rewarded President Lee Jae Myung with relatively high approval ratings.
The second tendency, which helps explain the first, is a large, non-ideological political center. South Korean politics is often described as deeply polarized, but the discussion leaves out “the quiet middle,” whose shifts determine the winners of elections. The left and right are active and visible, often sponsoring street demonstrations that make for dramatic political theater, but neither comes close to a majority. The size of each varies with time, but the core is most likely around 35 percent for each side, which leaves the quiet middle with a sizable 30 percent.
This 30 percent does not move entirely in one direction, but the bulk of it tilts toward supporting a practical approach to dealing with crises. A tilt of 20-25 percent in one direction produces a solid majority that most of the losing side accepts as the will of the people.
The quiet middle does more than just tilt in one direction. Unlike those on either politicized end who support strong government action to implement their agenda, the quiet middle remains wary of strong government and looks for opportunities to check politicians who might abuse power. To do so, they easily move in the opposite direction when they sense political overreach. This tendency has caused parties of most sitting presidents to lose seats in the National Assembly and in local elections held during their term.
These two tendencies work together and help lead the nation out of the crisis and push it toward the next stage of development. In 1998, South Korea made steady progress with economic reform and shifted its focus toward internet-based technology as a new source of growth.
The situation in 2025 has echoes of 1998. After tepid economic growth in the first half of 2025, growth recovered in the second half with the election of a new president and economic stimulus. The new government has set a goal of making South Korea the third most important player, after the US and China, in AI-related industries. The country remains a semiconductor powerhouse, and continued investment-driven growth in AI bodes well for its economy.
Local elections on June 3, 2026, will offer insight into the quiet middle’s assessment of Lee Jae Myung’s administration. History shows that the president’s party does well when local elections are held early in a presidential term. In 2018, the Democratic Party did well because Moon Jae-in had a high approval rating at the time. In 2022, the People Power Party did well because Yoon Suk Yeol was only three weeks into office.
President Lee’s continued high approval ratings and the history of recent local elections point to a strong Democratic Party performance in 2026. A weakening economy could slow down momentum, but most forecasts call for stronger growth than in 2025. Political overreach could cause the quiet middle to tilt away, but that appears unlikely. Instead, the quiet middle will most likely stay the course, bolstering South Korea’s resilience while keeping one eye over its shoulder.
Robert J. Fouser
Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Providence, Rhode Island. He can be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. — Ed.
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