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Conservative Party Prevails as Poll Results Embarrass the Democratic Party

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Han Dong Hoon (left), the interim head of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), and Lee Jae Myung, the leader of the Democratic Party (DP) / News1
 

In a poll asking which party’s candidate they would vote for if the general election were held tomorrow, the gap in approval rating between the People Power Party and the Democratic Party has widened beyond the margin of error.

In a regular poll conducted by the polling company Metrics for Yonhap News and Yonhap News TV, targeting 1,000 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide on the 2nd and 3rd, 33% of the respondents said they would vote for the People Power Party’s candidate if the general election were held tomorrow, outperforming the Democratic Party’s candidate (26%) beyond the margin of error.

The margin of error for this poll is ±3.1 percentage points (p) at the 95% confidence level. The gap (7%p) has exceeded the margin of error.

Compared with the previous survey conducted on the 3rd and 4th of last month, the response that they would vote for the People Power Party’s candidate did not change, but the response that they would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate decreased by 9%p.

The significant decrease in responses to vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate seems to have been influenced by the nomination conflicts. It can be inferred from the fact that 35% of the respondents chose the People Power Party in response to the question of which party is doing better in nominations, regardless of party support. Only 23% of the respondents said the Democratic Party did better in nominations.

Around 3% of the respondents said they would vote for the candidate of the “Cho Kuk New Party” (tentative name), led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, and 2% said they would vote for the candidate of the Reform New Party led by former People Power Party leader Lee Jun Seok.

The New Future led by former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak Yeon and the Green Justice Party, a coalition party for the general election between the Green Party and the Justice Party, each received 1 %.

In response to the question of which party they would vote for proportional representative members, 28% of the respondents said they would choose the People’s Future Party, a satellite party of the People Power Party. The Democratic Reform Progressive Alliance (tentative name), a satellite party of the opposition including the Democratic Party, was 14%, and the Cho Kuk New Party was 13%. The similar approval rating of the Democratic Party and the Cho Kuk New Party suggests a whirlwind of the Cho Kuk New Party. The Reform New Party (3%), the New Future Party (2%), and the Green Justice Party (1%) followed.

Metrics announced that it conducted the survey under the name of the Cho Kuk New Party, as the Cho Kuk New Party announced that it would finalize its party name as the Cho Kuk (or National) Innovation Party just before the survey, but it was before the official founding, so it received an interpretation from the National Election Commission (NEC).

This survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire and a 100% wireless phone interview method. The response rate was 11.7%.

For more details, please refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.

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