The Biden administration has compiled next year’s defense budget, which includes plans to swiftly provide weapons to Taiwan in the same manner as it supported Ukraine and to invest heavily in anti-ship missiles in preparation for naval warfare with China. Despite the austerity budget trend due to astronomical fiscal deficits, it conveys a message to deter China’s military expansion. The U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that China can directly compete with the U.S. and is becoming more aggressive and unpredictable due to the impact of economic stagnation.
President Biden submitted a “Fiscal Year 2025 Defense Budget” at $895 billion to Congress today. This budget is 1% higher than last year, making it a negative budget considering the inflation rate. The budget increase rate remaining at 1% is due to a deal with the Republicans to increase the debt limit to prevent a federal government shutdown last year, on the condition that the 2025 budget would only be increased by a maximum of 1%.
However, the budget for deterring China, such as strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region and supporting Taiwan, has either increased or been newly allocated compared to last year. Also, they decided to maintain military superiority over China by accelerating the modernization projects of three major nuclear forces, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), strategic bombers, and nuclear submarines. Bloomberg News evaluated this defense budget as “a subtle strategic message aimed at China.”
In particular, for the first time, a budget of $500 million for Taiwan was included via the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), and the U.S. Department of Defense explained that it was “to respond to aggression in this region and guarantee continuous support for alliances.” The PDA is a method used dozens of times to support Ukraine, which allows for rapid security support to other countries using the U.S. weapons stockpile without congressional approval in emergencies. The U.S. provided weapons to Taiwan for the first time last year using the PDA, and China strongly objected at the time, saying it would “turn Taiwan into an arsenal.”
A plan to expand anti-ship capabilities to eliminate threats to U.S. forces at sea was also included. The U.S. Navy is developing the Maritime Strike Tomahawk, launched from submarines, in collaboration with major defense industry companies such as Lockheed Martin and RTX, and it is significant to deploy it quickly. The U.S. Army also announced plans to conduct two more training sessions in the Indo-Pacific region than last year, totaling 11 sessions. Next year’s defense budget also allocated $9.9 billion to the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) for Guam defense support, an increase of $800 million from the record high of the 2024 fiscal year ($9.1 billion).
Meanwhile, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), which oversees U.S. intelligence agencies, predicted in its annual threat assessment report released on the same day that “Taiwan is an important point of conflict between the U.S. and China, and China will use stronger means in response to the increased U.S. support for Taiwan.” The DNI also expressed concern that China will intensify pressure on Southeast Asian neighboring countries and Japan in the South China Sea and East China Sea through naval power enhancement. Regarding the People’s Liberation Army of China, it assessed that “it is trying to transform into a world-class military but lacks combat experience.”
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