Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has a dream of a 30-year reign and is set to embark on his next six-year term on the 7th (local time). Having scored a record-high approval rating of 87% in March, securing his fifth term, he can potentially run for office until 2030, edging closer to a lifetime rule. As he receives accolades for becoming a modern-day Tsar (Emperor), he has recently expressed his determination to persist with the war in Ukraine in a state-of-the-nation address. The Victory Day celebrations, scheduled for two days after his inauguration, are expected to be an amplified display of Putin’s regime.
President Putin is set to be inaugurated at the Grand Kremlin Palace at noon on the 7th. Having successfully secured his fifth term this year, following 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2018, his term is guaranteed until 2030. His reign, which includes his tenure as Prime Minister from 2008 to 2012, will span 30 years, exceeding the 29-year rule of former Soviet Union Communist Party Secretary Joseph Stalin. After his election victory, he emphasized in a press conference that “Russia needs to be stronger and more efficient.”
Putin, who emphasizes a single rule, is expected to go all out in the war in Ukraine. According to AP, in his state-of-the-nation address last February, President Putin portrayed the invasion of Ukraine as a battle for Russia’s survival. That day, he emphasized the legitimacy of the war and presented domestic measures to support education, welfare, and poverty eradication necessary for the continuation of the war. Brian Taylor, a professor at Syracuse University who has written a book on Putin, told AP, “The war in Ukraine is central to his current rule, and there are no signs that this will change.”
On the contrary, Putin’s fifth term in Russia could see conflicts spreading elsewhere. If Ukraine, with U.S. aid, and Russia maintain their current frontlines, Russia could potentially launch invasions against the Baltic Sea coast or Poland. Stephan Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard, wrote in a Foreign Policy article about Putin, “There is a possibility of a new attack elsewhere.” Maxim Samorukov, an expert at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, speculated in a Foreign Affairs commentary that “Putin might make a mistake led by whims and delusions.”
Putin is expected to crack down on internal dissent. After the terror attack that killed 145 people at a concert hall near Moscow on March 22, shortly after his election victory, President Putin filled the security void he had been neglecting, salvaging his pride. He is silencing internal dissent under the pretext of finding those responsible for the terror attack and preventing a recurrence. The control of the media and the closure of the internet network following the imprisonment of his most prominent opponent, Alexei Navalny, is expected to continue.
The Victory Day celebrations, scheduled for two days after his inauguration, are expected to showcase President Putin’s authority. According to TASS, on the 5th, Russia invited several national leaders, including Cuba, to the Victory Day commemoration celebrating the victory of World War II on the 9th. For the first time since the start of the war in 2022, the Victory Day parade will be held in Moscow’s Red Square. Unlike last year, when only former Soviet Union leaders participated, this year’s event will include leaders from Cuba, Laos, Kazakhstan, etc. Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu announced that this year’s parade will involve 9,000 troops, a slight increase from last year, and 75 pieces of military equipment.
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