While North Korea and Russia are strengthening their ties amidst the Ukraine war, some speculate that the friendship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will only last until the end of the Ukrainian war.
An article published in The Economist on June 16 titled Putin and Kim Jong Un’s Dangerous Bromance analyzed, “The bromance has blossomed due to geopolitical changes, but their seemingly close friendship may not last after the Ukraine war.” From Putin’s perspective, who is desperate for victory, it’s crucial to receive military support from North Korea as it has gone into a rogue state. However, there is an analysis that if the military cooperation with North Korea continues at the current level after the war, it will inevitably impact diplomacy and trade for economic recovery.
Currently, the diplomatic community anticipates Putin’s visit to North Korea and is focusing on how much the military cooperation between the two leaders will escalate.
Putin’s visit to Pyongyang is attracting significant attention because it will be his first visit in 24 years. Putin’s visit to Pyongyang is also a reciprocal visit to Kim’s visit to Russia last September, which adds to the speculation that Putin will bring a big gift to North Korea. North Korea is believed to have been consistently supplying weapons to Russia since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Although it is not entirely clear what North Korea received in return, it is estimated that at least 9,000 containers have been sent from Russia to North Korea since last September. It is speculated that not only economic support but also advanced weapons or materials that could greatly help in developing related technologies have been sent to North Korea.
The Korea Institute for National Security Strategy predicted that the North Korea-Russia summit would establish a new bilateral relationship, potentially elevating their friendly relations to the highest level of strategic partnership in modern international relations.
Meanwhile, Russia has recently been sending conciliatory messages to the South Korean government.
For instance, Putin unusually praised South Korea at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), saying, “There is no ‘anti-Russian’ attitude and we highly appreciate that they have not directly delivered any weapons to Ukraine.”
Georgy Zinoviev, the Russian Ambassador to South Korea, also shifted the blame for the strained Russia-South Korea relationship to other places in an interview with Russian media in mid-June, stating that South Korea wants to recover relations with Russia but is restrained from improving relations due to Western allies, including the United States.
He even predicted that South Korea would be the first country to return to the ranks of friendly countries among unfriendly countries.
This is in stark contrast to Russia listing South Korea along with the United States and the European Union (EU) as unfriendly countries for participating in sanctions against Russia in 2022. At the time, Putin warned that if South Korea supplied weapons to Ukraine, Russia-South Korea relations would be ruined.
The prevailing analysis is that Russia is hinting at a possibility of a shift in stance because it is in the national interest to seek to restore relations with South Korea from a long-term perspective. It is also interpreted as an intention to keep the door open for potential reconciliation with South Korea, which was once the fifth-largest export partner before the outbreak of the Ukrainian war.
Lim Jae Cheon, a professor at Korea University’s Department of North Korean Studies, stated, “Russia sees North Korea’s military support as essential for now, but depending on the situation after the end of the Ukraine war, it may not be necessary. It may be difficult for North Korea and Russia to maintain the same relationship they have now.”
However, he said, “Since both countries have anti-American colors, maintaining good relations with North Korea can help Russia’s national interests.” He added that he did not expect a sudden serious rift in the friendship between North Korea and Russia.
Koh Yu Hwan, an emeritus professor at Dongguk University, said, “Putin has evaluated that South Korea has not directly supported weapons to Ukraine, and he talks as if he intends to restore relations with South Korea after the war ends. He seems to see that the investment of Korean companies in Russia has helped the economy a lot through cooperation so far.”
He also predicted that “If the Ukrainian war ends, in the economic field, they will try to conduct equal-distance diplomacy with South and North Korea.”
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