Kim Jong Un’s Flood Fallout: How North Korea’s Disaster is Triggering a Defection Rush

North Korean discontent is building up. The country has been struggling for over a month with flood recovery efforts after heavy rainfall last month. Concern about the occurrence of a defection rush is rising due to its struggle with chronic food shortages following extensive flood damage.

According to NK News, a U.S.-based outlet focusing on North Korean affairs, the country’s overseas missions have canceled upcoming celebrations for the Day of the Foundation of the Republic, also known as “9·9 Day,” set for next month.

North Korean diplomats have reportedly informed guests that the reception for the Day of the Foundation of the Republic has been canceled due to the government’s focus on flood recovery efforts in the northwest region. This situation has prompted concerns about the regime’s worsening financial condition as it grapples with flood damage.

The situation appears more challenging despite Kim Jong Un’s public assurances that North Korea can handle the flood crisis independently. The South Korean National Intelligence Service reports North Korea has experienced significant damage from recent floods in the Amnok River area. This contrasts with China, where the damage has been less severe. The report attributes the extensive damage to poorly constructed earthen levees, built to only 1 meter (3.3 feet) in height.

Park Sun Won, a member of South Korea’s Democratic Party and the opposition’s representative on the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee, told reporters after a committee meeting, “Most of the damage is inevitable heading to North Korea when heavy rains coincide with high tides along the west coast. While it appears to be a natural disaster, the National Intelligence Service’s analysis indicates that it is fundamentally a man-made disaster due to a lack of prevention measures against heavy rain and flooding.”

Given these circumstances, Kim Jong Un, who initially turned down Russian President Vladimir Putin’s flood aid offer by stating that he would request help if necessary, has recently accepted aid supplies from Russia.

Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported last week that as Russian-supplied food items such as sugar, butter, and cooking oil arrived in flood-affected areas, North Korea’s Ministry of State Security began intensifying its surveillance of residents. According to a source in North Pyongan Province, “Rice and flour were provided to flood victims in Uiju County as monthly rations, about 50 to 60 kilograms (110 to 132 pounds) per family of four,” adding, “These supplies are from Russia.”

Discontent among residents, including those affected by the floods, appears to grow amid the harsh conditions. Experts warn that this discontent could potentially lead to increased defections. Intelligence reports suggest that dissatisfaction with Kim Jong Un’s regime is rising, with the number of defectors increasing compared to 2020 to 2022.

Jeon Sung Hoon, an assistant professor at Kyungmin University, commented, “In a non-democratic society, individual incidents may not lead to mass actions, but ongoing discontent can accumulate and lead to significant unrest.” He further noted, “Even the strongest iron can break under sustained fatigue.”

Jeon also highlighted that extensive flooding could catalyze defection, noting that the number of defectors increased two to three times annually following the mid-1990s food crisis, compared to about ten per year in the early 1990s.