North Korea-Russia talks are possible in the first half of this year, following the Ukraine war and the success of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fifth term. The possibility of holding them in Pyongyang as early as April is high, and the close ties between the two countries are expected to continue.
Last month, the Russian state-run media interviewed Alexander Matsegora, the Russian ambassador to North Korea. He said, “We formed a roadmap based on the agreement between the two countries last September,” and “More will be achieved this year, and human exchanges will be expanded.” He added, “One of the documents that President Putin will sign during his visit to North Korea is an agreement on mutual travel,” and “The cause of the heightened crisis surrounding the Korean Peninsula originated from the United States,” virtually acknowledging the North Korea-Russia talks.
Some have analyzed that North Korea and Russia would expand their cooperation to the economic field, not just the military. The New York Times (NYT) reported that despite UN sanctions against North Korea, Russia allowed its financial institutions to withdraw $9 million out of $30 million from frozen North Korean funds. U.S. authorities have speculated that North Korea would spend these funds on oil.
The UN Security Council Sanctions Committee on North Korea reported on the 20th (local time) that North Korea has been continuously exporting weapons to be used in the Ukraine war despite UN sanctions. The annual report, published for the first time in six months since last September, contains several major suspicious cases supporting the continued arms trade between North Korea and Russia.
“President Putin’s visit to North Korea signals a shift in Russia’s Korean Peninsula policy toward equidistant diplomacy with the two Koreas,” said Park Byung Hwan, director of the Eurasia Strategy Institute (formerly the Economic Attaché at the South Korean Embassy in Moscow), adding that North Korea was overly conscious of the U.S. about the Korean Peninsula issue and its relationship with Russia.
Meanwhile, diplomats say that China will try to set a date for a trilateral summit with South Korea, Japan, and China to manage the Korean Peninsula issue after the general election in April. The South Korean government’s push for a trilateral summit and the need to add China’s “constructive role” to North Korea’s nuclear and missile advancements mean that the North Korean government will expand dialogue with China.
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