Analysts suggest that North Korea’s four rounds of waste balloons (balloons filled with trash) launched toward the South last month are experiments with a new psychological warfare tool.
In an issue briefing titled Analysis of North Korea’s Waste Balloon Provocation Intentions and Prospects for Inter-Korean Relations in the Second Half of the Year, the Senior Research Fellow Sung Ki Young of the National Security Strategy Institute’s North Korea Research Lab claimed, “North Korea tested the southbound trajectory of aerial objects, which move naturally by wind at altitudes of about 1.2 to 1.8 miles, using unpowered aircraft.”
He continued, “There may have been an inherent intention to test how South Korea’s military air defense network responds to new intrusion methods like unpowered balloons in the propaganda balloon launches.” He emphasized, “In the end, the anti-North leaflets were just an excuse for intrusion that North Korea publicly claimed. The real reason for the waste balloon launches was not that.” The essence of this waste balloon incident is described as a hit-and-run strategy to test a new type of mass intrusion method while managing military tension at an appropriate level.
Sung warned, “We should not underestimate the potential danger of waste balloons just because North Korea targeted psychological disruption rather than physical damage,” adding, “We cannot completely rule out the possibility of balloons being used as some kind of attack method in the event of a conflict or full-scale war between the two Koreas in the future.”
He added, “Although balloons without power or propulsion systems cannot accurately target specific objects if lethal substances are injected inside them, it is possible to inflict damage on an unspecified number of people.” He mentioned the example of a Chinese reconnaissance balloon that infiltrated U.S. airspace last year, arguing, “The technical evolution of military operations using balloons is ongoing.”
Sung listed the following as factors that could escalate tension in inter-Korean relations in the second half of 2024:
- North Korea’s low-to-mid-level provocation in the military demarcation line (MDL) area using the suspension of the 9.19 Comprehensive Military Agreement and the U.S.-South Korea Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercise in August;
- North Korea’s announcement of maritime border declaration through constitutional amendment;
- and the possibility of North Korea re-launching its reconnaissance satellite.
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