Chinese President Xi Jinping warned that China must prepare for “black swan” and “gray rhino” risks, signaling the country’s crises.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi stated that “black swan” and “gray rhino” events could occur frequently. He released a document during a third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee.
He added that the world is experiencing an extreme transformation, accelerating regional conflicts. “In the face of increasing external suppression, China’s development faces a period where strategic opportunities and risks coexist while uncertainties lie,” he said.
A “black swan” is an unexpected event with significant consequences, while a “gray rhino” is a foreseeable risk often overlooked. These concepts convey a message regarding the economic and security crises. In particular, territorial conflicts in the Taiwan and South China Sea, as well as domestic issues like the real estate slump and local government debt, are the problems Xi is referring to.
Xi used these terms in January 2019, when China’s economic growth rate hit a 28-year low of 6.6%. He also used it again when the Biden administration took office in January 2021.
The decision document, which has 60 provisions and over 300 reform tasks, clearly expresses a commitment to developing advanced technology and securing security through military and supply chain enhancements. It also emphasizes reinforcing state-owned enterprises, indicating that China will continue to manage private businesses and finance under state leadership for national power.
The document included improvements to national defense security and optimization of the defense technology industry. Xinhua stated that the importance of national security has been further emphasized to bolster the security of China’s key industrial networks and its strategic military deterrence.
According to the South China Morning Post, such decisions were made to counteract Western pressures led by the U.S. and emphasize strengthening economic, technological, and military capabilities. In reality, the real issues China needs to resolve are high tariffs and regional conflicts such as the Ukraine war, Taiwan, and the South China Sea.
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