U.S. Drone Market Set to Skyrocket: New Rules and Possible Chinese Sanctions Could Transform Industry

The U.S. commercial drone market is expanding rapidly, thanks partly to easing regulatory barriers. Analysts suggest that potential U.S. sanctions against Chinese drones could open doors for non-Chinese drone manufacturers.

A KOTRA Dallas trade office report released yesterday forecasts that the number of registered commercial drones in the U.S. will hit around 1.12 million by 2028. As of late 2023, the country has approximately 842,000 registered commercial drones.

This surge in commercial drones is mainly due to relaxed regulations. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recently approved beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) flights for commercial delivery drones operated by Zipline International and Wing Aviation in the Dallas area of Texas.

This change marks a significant shift. Since 2016, the U.S. government has strictly prohibited BVLOS flights for small drones. However, with recent policy adjustments, companies such as Zipline, Wing, United Parcel Service (UPS) Flight Forward, and Amazon Prime Air have also received BVLOS flight approvals.

Commercial drones are quickly finding applications in logistics and agriculture, construction, entertainment, oil and gas, and real estate. Especially in agriculture, drones significantly enhance productivity and efficiency by monitoring crop and land conditions, detecting pests and diseases, and conducting surveys.

As the commercial drone market overgrows, drone imports to the U.S. are also surging. By May of this year, the value of drone imports reached $314.92 million. The top exporting countries to the U.S. include Malaysia (66.4%), China (17.4%), Vietnam (7.1%), Canada (4.0%), and Switzerland (1.2%). South Korea is sixth, with an import value of $3.35 million, holding a 1.0% market share, just behind Switzerland.

Chinese drones dominate the commercial drone sector. A survey by the Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) reveals that drones from China, primarily from DJI, account for 90% of the U.S. hobbyist drone market, 70% of the industrial drone market, and 80% of the emergency rescue drone market. Chinese drones are favored for their lower cost and superior performance compared to American and non-Chinese alternatives.

However, Republicans have increasingly voiced interest in American-made or non-Chinese commercial drones, sparking a movement to curb DJI’s influence.

The KOTRA Dallas trade office stated, “The U.S. drone market has a relatively weak domestic manufacturing base as Chinese drones have dominated the market for over a decade. The recent policy shifts by the U.S. government easing drone flight regulations and restricting the use of Chinese drones could present new opportunities for non-Chinese drone manufacturers.”