US New Vehicle Sales Projected to Reach 15.9 Million in 2024, Led by Hybrid Demand

US new vehicle sales in 2024 are projected to hit 15.9 million units, the highest since 2019. This increase is driven by inventory replenishment, expanded sales incentives, and increased demand for hybrid vehicles (HVs). Major automakers expect the market to remain robust in 2025. Still, the impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s auto policies, such as the repeal of the EV tax credit, on the market is uncertain.

According to market research firm Wards Intelligence, new vehicle sales in 2024 will reach 15.9 million units, up 2.2 percent from the previous year and the highest since 2019.

General Motors, No. 1 in Sales for 2nd Consecutive Year

General Motors maintained its No. 1 market share in 2023, selling 2.7 million units, up 4.3% from the previous year. Rory Harvey, General Motors’ global market leader, expressed confidence, saying, “We’re carrying significant momentum into 2025.”

Hybrids Rise and EVs Slowdown

Most automakers have responded to the slowdown in demand for electric vehicles by focusing on their core businesses of internal combustion engine trucks and SUVs. In particular, with consumer interest in hybrids increasing, hybrid vehicle sales increased by 36.7% year-on-year.

Toyota reported a 3.7 percent increase in sales year over year, attributing much of this growth to the popularity of its flagship Camry sedan, RAV4 SUV, and hybrid models. David Christ, Toyota’s North American sales and marketing chief, mentioned that hybrid vehicles are sold out and struggling to keep up with demand. He also noted that demand for electric cars remains weak despite significant incentives and federal support.

Ford reported a 4.2 percent increase in sales. Hybrid sales are twice that of EVs, while some manufacturers, including Stellantis and Tesla, saw sales decline.

EV Market Share Changes

According to Cox Automotive, EV sales in 2024 are expected to reach approximately 1.3 million units or 8% of new car sales. This is slightly higher than the 1.2 million units sold in 2023, or a 7.6% share.

Trump Administration Policy Variables

Trump has pledged to eliminate the $7,500 EV tax credit and impose additional tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Toyota’s David Christ warns that eliminating these preferential policies could significantly impact the EV market and says, “We’re prepared for that.”

Last year was marked by the rapid growth of hybrid vehicles and the slowdown in the EV market. However, in 2025, the impact of the new administration’s policies on the automobile market is expected to be a major variable.